tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61476989244730970462024-03-12T22:30:07.390-07:00Chumpmenudo's Investment PortfolioInvesting for retirement, general financial advice and lessons learned, and occasional opinions on anything and everything.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger196125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-74433688199125995692022-01-07T16:12:00.137-08:002022-01-09T11:29:38.590-08:00Value Play: Hamilton Beach Brands (HBB)<p>Hamilton Beach Brands (HBB) recently popped up on one of my deep value screens, so I decided to dig a little deeper. I screen for stocks with </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>modest debt </li><li>low PE </li><li>strong return on invested capital</li><li>and a dividend yield of at least 2.5%. </li></ul>HBB meets these criteria.<p></p><p><u>Background</u></p><p>Based in Richmond, VA, HBB sells pretty much everything in a kitchen that plugs into the wall, here is a list of their categories:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0X-JeO_HIQM_JtyguaynWnQg1cQ229jVcbx8sSWEN81lL2aCojTLWvCr3RqO5rdoWQ3HMRtop7tzhUhZ-3ltBOdLxA0qOnmTmcfhx2FuQ3AyF2iFABJTmU6rvSDuIEnhb92MvOjKWOCAcEWN9kuGtzaFIYoglWdKf361G9EEhq5b_fY9gP91An0UQnw=s796" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="796" height="485" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0X-JeO_HIQM_JtyguaynWnQg1cQ229jVcbx8sSWEN81lL2aCojTLWvCr3RqO5rdoWQ3HMRtop7tzhUhZ-3ltBOdLxA0qOnmTmcfhx2FuQ3AyF2iFABJTmU6rvSDuIEnhb92MvOjKWOCAcEWN9kuGtzaFIYoglWdKf361G9EEhq5b_fY9gP91An0UQnw=w640-h485" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Source: Company website</span><br /><p>Here are a few other items of note from my research:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Each of the categories above has multiple products</li><li>HBB spun out of NACCO Industries in 2017</li><li>The company sells products primarily in the US, Canada, and Mexico</li><li>33% of sales are online</li><li>They are good at developing and selling products under multiple brands</li><li>They are expanding their presence in the fast growing home, health and wellness market</li><li>HBB is developing partnerships with great brands; e.g. Clorox branded air purifiers</li><li>Covid took the stock down with the rest of the market, followed by a strong rebound in the share price with the rest of the market</li><li>Supply chain issues and inflation hurt Q2 and Q3 results some, driving down the stock price. The stock price peaked in May, and has been steadily declining to the present</li><li>However, demand has remained strong and continues to grow at a double digit rate each quarter </li><li>HBB has increased prices to address inflation, and they are projecting that major supply chain issues will be resolved by mid-2022.</li><li>Sales have increased nicely for four straight quarters, but impact on supply chain will be felt during the (Christmas 2021) current quarter, and perhaps into Q1 and Q2</li><li>Gross margins are 21.2%, and should remain stable with price increases balancing inflation</li><li>Sales of high margin premium products increased 35% this past quarter </li><li>Revenue increased 48% in the latest quarter</li><li>Return on invested capital is around 17.4%</li><li>Total debt is 36.8%</li><li>In May of 2021 there was ~ $150k worth of insider buying at around $23 per share</li></ul><p></p><p><u>Valuation</u></p><p>As of this writing, the price per share is trading around $14. In the chart below, you can see that the PE ratio is at an historic low of around 7x forward earnings:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvQUm7IOCAY6CnpFi_YkMPcuYrqQJrl0apimI7w70udc3UB-CfGq7MtHbhAKR8GzM7VWUpORFSqBO0SPfGGogJVvcJIaPmnbx0DCCOJwlrqJCQ-WAYDj4nRGwKkKsKmfTCKefOq9YNXJb3ydB823P9hpWHwcEKZFSjaJcx-2XdqvEZ-4kzL6h_xLU0XQ=s1273" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="614" data-original-width="1273" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvQUm7IOCAY6CnpFi_YkMPcuYrqQJrl0apimI7w70udc3UB-CfGq7MtHbhAKR8GzM7VWUpORFSqBO0SPfGGogJVvcJIaPmnbx0DCCOJwlrqJCQ-WAYDj4nRGwKkKsKmfTCKefOq9YNXJb3ydB823P9hpWHwcEKZFSjaJcx-2XdqvEZ-4kzL6h_xLU0XQ=w640-h308" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Finbox</span><br /><p>The stock has only been trading publicly since 2017, and average PE since the IPO is 12.18x. One might argue that given the 21% growth in earnings forecast for 2022, the current PE of 8.2x (note: FASTGraphs uses a blended PE which averages projected earnings with current earnings) should expand to at least its historical level of 12.18x, and possibly up to a more typical 15x for a company with earnings growth well above the 7% level implied by a PE 15.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZxjUHAB9WggWPdmpsI8IZeXwuWv2zpwc1h_2ejTZUB8xMw_oBRrExXxfNVW39tAAfDHK56DcRYEFk35Sh2nYQ5Hea5lN93DhROjkyMPHHobsQBSmbQOUTGPGfFSRiAkuBiPxuFM7MMSzMD2TwgOubPWuumaH9Es-bIUsY-cHCAnUXSckHHbZf4rYUvw=s1966" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1966" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZxjUHAB9WggWPdmpsI8IZeXwuWv2zpwc1h_2ejTZUB8xMw_oBRrExXxfNVW39tAAfDHK56DcRYEFk35Sh2nYQ5Hea5lN93DhROjkyMPHHobsQBSmbQOUTGPGfFSRiAkuBiPxuFM7MMSzMD2TwgOubPWuumaH9Es-bIUsY-cHCAnUXSckHHbZf4rYUvw=w640-h296" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: small;">Source: FASTGraphs and author's annotations</span><br /><p><u>Thesis</u><br /></p><ul><li>I believe the market has baked the bad news of inflation and supply chain issues into the current low stock price - such that a weak quarter or two will not decrease the stock price too much further. </li><li>Given that the market tends to look ahead several quarters, HBB may be at a bottom, with lots of positive catalysts on the horizon:</li><ul><li>Price increases</li><li>Continued strong demand</li><li>Expanded high margin health and wellness products</li><li>Continued new product introductions</li></ul></ul><p>So, from today's price of ~$14, I expect the stock appreciation to range from 80% to 125% (price by year end between $24 and $30) depending on the whether the stock returns to its historic PE, or a more appropriate expanded PE 15.</p><p>And as an aside, I really want to own one of their new and very popular products - <span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Bartesian Premium Cocktail Machine!</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5rxIu8dVSWRy-iKM1QsF_qLhkKp8IsqyxE93JpYXf0zAaI7vKDGtC8Y25As6fydiJ-jCa-Rov0xpuVAUyIAotSPmm-5QsZ3yCmAGKu6jrUC8E-Dhg6SD-WSH01O0iaqWNDK_F0Ijt6bIW_WTNd4A8eGZDuTdrC7i9NDJvFOja_KPp77hJaxfPLJRmYw=s675" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="675" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj5rxIu8dVSWRy-iKM1QsF_qLhkKp8IsqyxE93JpYXf0zAaI7vKDGtC8Y25As6fydiJ-jCa-Rov0xpuVAUyIAotSPmm-5QsZ3yCmAGKu6jrUC8E-Dhg6SD-WSH01O0iaqWNDK_F0Ijt6bIW_WTNd4A8eGZDuTdrC7i9NDJvFOja_KPp77hJaxfPLJRmYw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p></p><p><br /></p><p>Best regards,</p><p>Chump</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-68399526536146269882020-03-28T13:49:00.002-07:002020-03-28T13:49:51.226-07:00What I'm Doing During Corona<header style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><div class="sa-art-hd" id="a-hd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 15px; padding-bottom: 15px;">
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What I'm Doing During Corona</h1>
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<time content="2020-03-25T01:24:09Z" itemprop="datePublished" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mar. 24, 2020 9:24 PM ET</time></div>
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Summary</div>
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I prepared a little.</div>
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I hedged a little.</div>
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Now I'm buying a little.</div>
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I manage three personal accounts of interest, my Chump IRA, which I write about occasionally, a taxable account with the bulk of my savings, and a smaller taxable account where I make more speculative trades.</div>
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Back in January, I was thinking about the Corona virus. I work with several Chinese scientists, and via We-Chat (Tencent TCEHY), they were telling me how bad things were getting for their families back in China, one group specifically in Wuhan.</div>
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I was struck by the extreme measures China was taking - shutting down industry completely, which wasn't matching the narrative coming out of China. I feared this would end up being pretty serious.</div>
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So, as an investor, what to do?</div>
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1. Trim your overpriced stocks; using my preferred valuation tool, FASTGraphs, I took a look at all of my stocks, and started trimming the ones that were significantly overpriced, and there were several. However, I made a few mistakes. In my IRA, trimming is a non-taxable event, so I trimmed quite a bit and got to around 30% cash in my portfolio, but I hold quite a few REITs, and some were still "undervalued," so I left those alone. This created a portfolio that became a bit REIT heavy, and as the market has dropped, the REITs have been crushed. Ouch.</div>
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In my taxable account, trimming or selling winners sucks because it creates a taxable event, and here in California, you get to tack on another 10%! So I try to avoid selling and trimming, which makes portfolio management difficult. I thought I would be smart, and instead of trimming, sell a few so-so gainers, and use the cash to by some S&P puts to hedge my portfolio - smart heh?</div>
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Well, my bigger taxable account is at Vanguard, and until just a few weeks ago, I didn't realize that they don't let you trade options - crap, so much for my hedge. Fortunately, I have a third account, my Schwab taxable account, and I had a pretty good cash position at Vanguard, so I moved that cash and some additional, into the Schwab account, where I could do a little hedging!</div>
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2. Hedge a little; in my Chump IRA (Fidelity), I bought some out of the money SPY S&P 500 Puts for mid-April, and I went long the VIX via UVXY. In my Vanguard account I added to PPL - a safe utility, and bought VCSH, a Vanguard short term, high quality bond ETF, these seemed to be my best moves given my account limitations (I'll be transferring my assets out of this account in the future). In my Schwab account, I bought a bunch of puts with the goal of hedging my many long positions in the Vanguard account - HTZ, MGM, AAL, AAPL, and S&P 500 were my mainstays.</div>
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In early March, I was ready, but my puts and the VIX went in wrong direction initially, and continued for a couple of weeks - which was very painful. I nearly closed all my hedges on several occasions.</div>
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Then all heck broke loose mid-march, and the hedges really helped a lot. On a day when my stocks were down 5%-6%, with the hedges, I would be down only 2%-3% overall, on several occasions wishing I had bought more hedges (greed). There was always this nagging feeling that I should sell the puts before the market shot back up (fear). It wasn't long until UVXY in the Chump IRA became my largest holding by far - which got scary given how volatile it tends to be. At one point I sold my entire UVXY position, then after 10 minutes of stress, I bought it right back, second guessing my decision (more fear, stupidity)</div>
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On Friday, March 20, I took down all my hedges - I'd been hearing a lot about the effectiveness of the Malaria + antibiotic treatment, not to mention the massive government aid packages coming, and didn't want to be on the wrong side of a massive rally. The rally today, March 24, would have been very painful had the hedges been in place.</div>
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But now what? After selling the hedges, and sitting on the sidelines with some cash, is it time to buy? Or is it too early?</div>
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3. Buying a little; the hedges are stressful, and super tough to time. At this point, I'm going to just keep making regular small investments across the accounts - on the worst of the down days, I started adding to my Chump IRA, mostly just buying more of what I already owned. The Chump IRA is a dividend growth focus, so I buy quality names that have paid a growing dividend for years. I also focus this account on a yield of at least 3.0%. Here are some of my recent buys: </div>
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HON, AFL, GPC, EMR, PPL, MMM, CSCO, STOR, AAT, T, PFE, GD, LMT, CVS</div>
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In my taxable account, I focus on stocks with a bit more growth potential, smaller or no dividend, but still very high quality. I've had a watch list in place for both accounts for years, but haven't bought many of these stocks due to extremely poor valuations. Finally, some of these quality names are hitting really good buy points. In addition, I'm trying to stick with companies that have low debt, excellent cash flow, and will be around even if things with the virus continue to get worse. Here some buys I've made there, most of which are new holdings:</div>
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V, ADP, BRK.B, FB, GOOGL, TCEHY, WBA, ADBE</div>
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As the situation evolves, I hope to keep making small buys every week for the next month or so. If things look dire, I'll slow down my buys, and stretch them out over months. If a cure looks likely, I may speed up the buys a little.</div>
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How are you hedged, and what are you buying?</div>
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Chump</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-1670508142272429112018-08-29T10:08:00.000-07:002018-08-29T10:08:03.639-07:00Stock Swap Today, Selling ALK, Buying AMATI'm selling Alaska Air in total. I bought ALK back in 2013 at a price of $42.30 per share. I'm selling the position today for around $67 and change. Here are the approximate stats for the sale:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpSEfECRTZPyzPV4lFupKpX_vnm_4Na48NkwGOWiKqceggkp5R5kpX3dFVUNFPT1CdKCIc4nDvXpf0C5axs-IsZ3_2HJdNVMUSVqaCZSPXQOByjD_utW99OpDtNPduW6GPt0V-JR1mIGm6/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-29+at+9.58.28+AM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="491" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpSEfECRTZPyzPV4lFupKpX_vnm_4Na48NkwGOWiKqceggkp5R5kpX3dFVUNFPT1CdKCIc4nDvXpf0C5axs-IsZ3_2HJdNVMUSVqaCZSPXQOByjD_utW99OpDtNPduW6GPt0V-JR1mIGm6/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-08-29+at+9.58.28+AM.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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Around 11% annual return on the investment. In addition, I sold a chunk in 2016 at $88/share, so the return is actual greater than shown.<br />
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My rationale for selling is twofold. One, I'm not thrilled with the forecasted EPS shrinkage at ALK. Their recent purchase of Virgin is questionable for me, and I think I can find a better value investment elsewhere, which should give me a better return on my investment capital.<br />
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That better investment for me today is AMAT. Here is the FASTGraph for AMAT:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3thYs5z5w2xFTinWo6iiII67ENezUqlaD2ncLYUXuZD9gOSMsrOdUt5Kp1k-hD2W3cTRytXnst2qXHOPQmOwaBsJvIP_4BYxNb7DSrELqCcRM3VN5W6ADjITe9XGCvT4SCdrHpfXg95v/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-29+at+9.40.20+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="823" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3thYs5z5w2xFTinWo6iiII67ENezUqlaD2ncLYUXuZD9gOSMsrOdUt5Kp1k-hD2W3cTRytXnst2qXHOPQmOwaBsJvIP_4BYxNb7DSrELqCcRM3VN5W6ADjITe9XGCvT4SCdrHpfXg95v/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-08-29+at+9.40.20+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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AMAT has a lower/better valuation, better growth prospects, a similar dividend yield, better credit rating, and superior return on invested capital. In short, I'm trading up, and getting a good quality stock at a very attractive price. Trade war rhetoric and tariffs are baked into today's price, so I see some real upside in the event that negotiations with China turn more positive. If not, current forecast holds.</div>
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I placed limit orders today to sell my entire ALK position, and buy a 1/2 position in AMAT, to which I will add in the coming month or two.</div>
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Neither stock is really a perfect dividend growth stock, but I like to own a few low dividend yielders, in exchange for a bit more growth potential. This is the role of this stock - more growth, less yield.</div>
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Best,</div>
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Chump</div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-49113254068368216472018-07-20T14:37:00.000-07:002018-07-20T14:37:22.127-07:00Mid-Year Holdings SummaryAttached below is my Chump IRA Portfolio Mid-Year (July 20 actually). I plan to start providing more regular updates going forward. As a bonus, I'm also attaching my taxable account holdings for review. <br />
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My IRA holdings tend to be all dividend growth focused, with yields above 2.5%. My taxable account tends to contain lower yielding, higher growth stocks.<br />
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Both are focused on value, and when the prices get high enough, I trim or sell.<br />
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1st, The Chump IRA:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioYj2VsETK1_yXn7ytmBmUIqPXbUhTUppJk_OPKP2MJVjLo_LiFOFVPPlJTVRlAUxurZ-jNxQImp_qH2Y0Uq_wpnsl_PahoIWKxpQK0cuo5241Y97hkBZyoYZkzG9H5vzJVN7azbqIPU3J/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.32.40+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1140" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioYj2VsETK1_yXn7ytmBmUIqPXbUhTUppJk_OPKP2MJVjLo_LiFOFVPPlJTVRlAUxurZ-jNxQImp_qH2Y0Uq_wpnsl_PahoIWKxpQK0cuo5241Y97hkBZyoYZkzG9H5vzJVN7azbqIPU3J/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.32.40+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK5Ccg5Q8UTzGOVfPXj6sz3yWX0gVlFm_k6em92mT8rvG2YXojtXLKYuXs3-gZZeM_ZLfEXM6oB-3PelvWJ-hNI5tzltNsJDFYxjoQUmtlCFMFg7e6iYLtxqPAU5pY4cpt1onlu80sPIO2/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.33.03+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="307" data-original-width="1141" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK5Ccg5Q8UTzGOVfPXj6sz3yWX0gVlFm_k6em92mT8rvG2YXojtXLKYuXs3-gZZeM_ZLfEXM6oB-3PelvWJ-hNI5tzltNsJDFYxjoQUmtlCFMFg7e6iYLtxqPAU5pY4cpt1onlu80sPIO2/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.33.03+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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and below is my taxable account:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAOdyzyoLXrsTxWiQi7giSEyE0mzXl-lNk6uAcf6lFi3OVSu33Z_j39vOJBmNcUPGmGAQZN5tWD01zBd7X_4viZsdTAEDWJFkpnl_l4UACng2Iuy7yYiSSlBEArf0pnjxIoKErV6NNWToi/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.35.15+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="1138" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAOdyzyoLXrsTxWiQi7giSEyE0mzXl-lNk6uAcf6lFi3OVSu33Z_j39vOJBmNcUPGmGAQZN5tWD01zBd7X_4viZsdTAEDWJFkpnl_l4UACng2Iuy7yYiSSlBEArf0pnjxIoKErV6NNWToi/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.35.15+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7lH-J1G3oChg8UNK5LnpKYO99ZM9pIKSjKbdWjYOK0lnvoCt8hmVYBSjQaYqV46qRdEZjhdshBi50AV3dBk3IhP74GUHa94tv9gv15sh88remF-DwnoRKAXoxzFEWuk8IM0x9Z-eL3Wi/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.35.36+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="179" data-original-width="1142" height="99" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7lH-J1G3oChg8UNK5LnpKYO99ZM9pIKSjKbdWjYOK0lnvoCt8hmVYBSjQaYqV46qRdEZjhdshBi50AV3dBk3IhP74GUHa94tv9gv15sh88remF-DwnoRKAXoxzFEWuk8IM0x9Z-eL3Wi/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-07-20+at+2.35.36+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-24245089079378136522018-04-30T14:48:00.002-07:002018-04-30T14:48:55.467-07:00Great Article Regarding the Impact of the #MeToo MovementFrom the folks at Hillsdale College<br />
<br />
<a href="https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/the-negative-impact-of-the-metoo-movement/?appeal_code=MK418EM15&utm_campaign=imprimis&utm_source=housefile&utm_medium=email&utm_content=april_2018_metoo&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9wwHOC9FdZj4htFf1gjmDlqxAkPLYBoitIMis3nJlK_wZZvpbVESR8m7ugCRLSgIHLAYlTdjz8mN_ksu4WP4qAN96eHQ&_hsmi=62504284">https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/the-negative-impact-of-the-metoo-movement/?appeal_code=MK418EM15&utm_campaign=imprimis&utm_source=housefile&utm_medium=email&utm_content=april_2018_metoo&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9wwHOC9FdZj4htFf1gjmDlqxAkPLYBoitIMis3nJlK_wZZvpbVESR8m7ugCRLSgIHLAYlTdjz8mN_ksu4WP4qAN96eHQ&_hsmi=62504284</a><br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-38581964027869726172018-02-11T09:25:00.001-08:002018-02-11T09:25:20.596-08:00What Looks Attractive after the Recent 8% Drop in the S&P? Added VTR, IRMKeeping a watch list is really important to move quickly into great stocks when the market corrects. I keep a list for the Chump IRA, mostly names with yields north of 3%, and a list for my taxable brokerage account with yields below 3%. Here are some of the most attractive stocks from those lists as of Friday.<br />
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First, here are stocks I already own in the Chump IRA, and are now 4* rated by Morningstar (undervalued). If I own a less than full position in any of these, I'm likely to add this week:<br />
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The list contains REITs, Utilities, and few others. Next, is my watch list, which contains stocks I've read about, and done a little research on. As they get close to my buy target prices, I do additional research, and if positive, I then add. This can happen in an hour or two, so consider this list partially screened. Also, I have to be careful not to get too overweight in a particular market sector. The sectors tend to get undervalued as a group, so I try to only add a few from a specific sector like health care REIT for example, or REITs in general.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjItncctHqYnAxFG7NIQNTcS9mpFZit62Ny8g_0im4K9niqxhe_JV9gQdV3eppFknt2Jzjyz2JFobSrEe7euXGmes6BnpyyxEWApDMA5rTEciiv-_iYo3f5BE0zUZaJQhoV2DxHqS_gj_zZ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-02-11+at+9.17.39+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1283" data-original-width="1600" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjItncctHqYnAxFG7NIQNTcS9mpFZit62Ny8g_0im4K9niqxhe_JV9gQdV3eppFknt2Jzjyz2JFobSrEe7euXGmes6BnpyyxEWApDMA5rTEciiv-_iYo3f5BE0zUZaJQhoV2DxHqS_gj_zZ/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-02-11+at+9.17.39+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Recent adds to the Chump portfolio include Ventas (VTR), and Iron Mountain (IRM).<br />
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For my taxable account, I'm watching the following:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_TwsfUmylWk3RGcl_ru0IOrRukpqQ0gAwy0iTtIvNsSvgivRnkISQ9_AEVP0I-NAX0AYaYyRr4sGn7N-i2j02aB-eto81t3hX9c7Rua-n7o12YBxnnc2bMlr0zOMc2wilCP0G3R8JxkoE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-02-11+at+9.22.44+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="915" data-original-width="1600" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_TwsfUmylWk3RGcl_ru0IOrRukpqQ0gAwy0iTtIvNsSvgivRnkISQ9_AEVP0I-NAX0AYaYyRr4sGn7N-i2j02aB-eto81t3hX9c7Rua-n7o12YBxnnc2bMlr0zOMc2wilCP0G3R8JxkoE/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-02-11+at+9.22.44+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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From this list AGN (Allergan) looks pretty compelling at recent prices, so I've started a position...<br />
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That's all for now,<br />
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ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-36882112083664213742018-01-24T13:34:00.000-08:002018-01-24T13:34:39.909-08:00Chump IRA Holdings for January, 2018I've been a bit lazy the past few months, and haven't been too good about updates. I'll catch up in the coming week or two. In the mean time, I thought it was important that I document my current holdings. Here they are below, sorted by % size in the portfolio....<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6mIZkUlxLfdUPlIUyLq7LPYPC2Ipx25MB__NmSiIqqa4JjQ-s0godzdirtnHe8qVtW5YY34VQAFpMCbmHHLMrfyuT5zbYQh3sY3OpgFCdRztVpC0EZ5CB8JNl8UKd2Sn46-v5xY9097Bc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-01-24+at+1.27.16+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="740" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6mIZkUlxLfdUPlIUyLq7LPYPC2Ipx25MB__NmSiIqqa4JjQ-s0godzdirtnHe8qVtW5YY34VQAFpMCbmHHLMrfyuT5zbYQh3sY3OpgFCdRztVpC0EZ5CB8JNl8UKd2Sn46-v5xY9097Bc/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-01-24+at+1.27.16+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
The portfolio contains 39 stocks, and around 4% cash. REITs were off last year a bit, and this was reflected in my overall performance for the year, and current red seen in the % gain since purchase column. In general, the higher yielding stocks have suffered a bit in the current rising interest rate environment, coupled with the ongoing threat of Amazon to the retail REIT sector.<br />
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Some recent adds to the portfolio include:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Ventas (VTR) - an attractively priced healthcare REIT</li>
<li>PPL Corp (PPL) - an attractively priced electric utility</li>
<li>Signet Jewelers (SIG) - a very attractively priced retail store</li>
</ul>
<div>
The rest of the holdings have been discussed previously.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Chump</div>
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-86041129623837267122017-11-06T10:00:00.002-08:002017-11-06T10:00:52.454-08:00Selling QCOM on the NewsShares of Qualcomm, QCOM jumped around 15% late last week on news that Broadcom will try to buy them. I've been holding QCOM for a couple of years, enjoying the dividends, but not much price appreciation in the stock. A few months ago, QCOM announced they would acquire NXPI for tens of billions of dollars.....<br />
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Now, with the stock up 21% from last week lows, I'm selling all my shares. The way I see this playing out is either:<br />
<br />
A) Qualcomm moves to block the sale to Broadcom by over paying for NXPI, which would effectively act like a poison pill, and add a huge debt load to the company -or-<br />
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B) Broadcom pulls off the deal, in which case the recent run up in the stock price is near it's peak....<br />
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I'm not seeing a lot of upside to holding QCOM...time to redeploy elsewhere.<br />
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Best,<br />
<br />
ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-89228358754785863152017-10-27T09:52:00.000-07:002017-10-27T09:52:50.238-07:00Adding to Simon Property Group (SPG)Adding to my SPG position today at around $157/share. I started my position in SPG last year at $166, and have added chunks at lower prices, the lowest was $152. The stock has been rising slowly since then, and they just reported an excellent quarter yesterday. Today, retail is getting hit hard because JC Penney is reporting abysmal numbers, and SPG is down around 3.5% as a I write this....<br />
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Here is yesterday's SPG report summary:<br />
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This purchase takes me to a very full position in the stock, with a current dividend yield of 4.56%. Love it.<br />
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ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-19047465762470600152017-10-25T10:52:00.002-07:002017-10-25T10:52:31.794-07:00S&P 500 Put, Stop Loss Triggers, Recent Adds (SJM)So, how to hedge a big IRA portfolio? Or should you bother if you are still 7 years away from your retirement age goal? This has been on my mind lately.<br />
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<ul>
<li>The S&P500 PE is up over 25 lately, at historically high levels. We haven't had a correction of 3% or more in nearly a year (11.5 months), and a 5% correction since well before that (18 months)</li>
<li>I don't own the S&P500 ETF in my IRA, so that's good.</li>
<li>I tend to buy undervalued stocks, and sell overvalued stocks, so that's good.</li>
<li>I do own a handful of names that are pretty overvalued, but continue to climb, so I hesitate to sell these, and they've grown large in the portfolio (GD, JNJ, MO, PM, JPM, PSX, ABBV, CVX), which is bad if a correction comes soon...</li>
</ul>
<div>
Here are the measures I've taken to be a bit more prudent in the short run:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>I bought an S&P put slightly out of the money at 2540, with an expiration of December 29, 2017.</li>
<ul>
<li>This is liking having a short position for $250,000 worth of S&P "stock." If the market drops 10%, this put would gain around $25,000 in value.</li>
<li>The cost for this put was around $4200</li>
<li>If the market remains positive, the put will expire worthless, and I'll have flushed $4200</li>
<li>As I write this, the market is down around 0.75% today, the put is up 40% today, slightly above the price where I purchased it....</li>
</ul>
<li>For the stocks mentioned above that are overvalued, I put in stop loss orders for several (JNJ, GD, CVX so far)</li>
<ul>
<li>I placed limit orders for a 3% trailing stop loss vs. last price.</li>
<li>If any of these drops 3%, the order becomes a limit at the price that's 3% below last closing price. </li>
<li>The orders are only to trim down to a "full" position in the portfolio</li>
<li>As of this blog post, GD has triggered (did so on 10-19-17) at a price of $207.75, which is above today's price, so that was good.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
Shifting gears, I like SJM again today, and have added another chunk. FASTGraph below:</div>
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Regards,</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Chump</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-1197400157524092322017-09-19T17:35:00.000-07:002017-09-19T17:35:32.204-07:00Updating My Investing Rules.....I've been thinking about the rules I wrote when I started this Dividend Growth IRA. I went back and looked at the rules I wrote in 2012, and here they are:<br />
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After 5 years of running this portfolio, its time I reviewed and updated these rules a bit.</div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">1. I've eliminated the "core" and "non-core" designations. This is tough to track and doesn't make a ton of sense anymore. I have a taxable account where I invest in lower yielding stocks, and that serves as the non-core. Today, I only invest in 2.5% yield or higher stocks for this account (usually)</span></div>
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2. The 10% cash goal is still valid, and I'm a little light today. I need to trim some of my larger/overpriced names.</div>
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3. I still only add stocks at nice undervaluation, so that's been good. I'm a bit slow to sell stocks if they are 15% overvalued. I'll need to change that to higher overvaluation number, perhaps 30% or so. I also rarely use stop losses. I find they don't work too well, and usually get triggered, then the stock recovers quickly.</div>
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4. There are other factors I like to look at these days, among them are:</div>
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<ul>
<li>Debt level (50% or less preferred)</li>
<li>Credit rating (at least BBB+)</li>
<li>Morningstar rating (4* or better is what I usually require)</li>
<li>ROIC, lately looking for higher than 10% here...though a soft target</li>
<li>Revenue. In addition to eps growth, I also like to see a growing revenue line</li>
<li>Insider action (I like to see insiders buying the shares, and especially hate to see them selling)</li>
<li>I also read the 10Q for the latest 2 quarters carefully, this is usually instructive, and gives me a feel for the CEO and whether or not she is a "bullshitter"</li>
</ul>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-32887473717543842362017-09-08T13:53:00.001-07:002017-09-08T13:55:55.744-07:00Selling AFL, Buying SJMPut orders in today to sell my position in AFL, and start a position in SJM<br />
<br />
AFL has been a decent performer, and is a modestly overvalued today. The dividend is down to 2.14%, and also hold a larger position in my taxable account. As a result, I'm closing the AFL position in favor or something more undervalued with a better yield.<br />
<br />
Enter Smucker (SJM). JM Smucker came to attention today via Chuck Carnivale, article here:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4105099-choosy-investors-choose-j-m-smucker-dividend-adds-value">https://seekingalpha.com/article/4105099-choosy-investors-choose-j-m-smucker-dividend-adds-value</a><br />
<br />
Thoughts on the matter:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>AFL is a big position in two accounts. Closing out one makes sense, and reduces risk</li>
<li>Growth prospects are better for SJM</li>
<li>Yield higher for SJM</li>
<li>AFL is a bit overvalued today, has a low yield, and is very stingy with dividend increases</li>
<li>I recently opened a position in ORI, another insurance name, so I feel fine closing AFL in the Chump account</li>
<li>SJM is a more defensive stock, and should fair well if the market tanks, or the economy slows</li>
</ul>
<br />
In short, this is an upgrade from my AFL holding here, a more defensive stock, and a better fit for my retirement portfolio given the higher yield, around 2.95% today.... Added the stock at $107, 1/2 position.<br />
<br />
Best,<br />
<br />
ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-49342399224562511702017-08-30T16:52:00.002-07:002017-08-30T16:52:32.084-07:00Market Lessons in Charts That You Can Hang On Your Wall!Another Great Article<br />
<br />
<a href="https://pensionpartners.com/put-these-charts-on-your-wall/">https://pensionpartners.com/put-these-charts-on-your-wall/</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-897427619271713282017-08-28T17:47:00.002-07:002017-08-28T17:50:16.962-07:00What Do the Best Investors Do that the Rest Don't? Great Little Article<a href="https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2017/8/27/what-do-the-best-investors-do-that-the-rest-dont">https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2017/8/27/what-do-the-best-investors-do-that-the-rest-dont</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
What Do the Best Investors Do That the Rest Don’t?</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
by Gary Mishuris, CFA</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Charlie Munger, the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s partner said<br />
something simple yet profound at the 2017 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: “A lot of<br />
other people are trying to be brilliant and we are just trying to stay rational. And it’s a big<br />
advantage.” Some might think that becoming an excellent investor requires off-the-charts<br />
intelligence or some highly proprietary model that leads to an edge that nobody else can<br />
replicate. That is not what experience has shown.<br />
<br />
Here are some traits and behaviors that have allowed investors to excel over the long-term:<br />
<br />
1. Temperament. Temperament is the most important quality for an investor to have. My<br />
observation of many investors over my 15+ years of professional investing has led me to<br />
believe that temperament cannot be learned, but rather it is an innate characteristic of<br />
one’s personality. Some people are able to remain rational and continue to follow their<br />
process even under great duress or during periods of external upheaval. Others get<br />
swept up in the emotion that typically runs amok during such circumstances, and<br />
abandon their discipline.<br />
<br />
2. Ability to do nothing most of the time. Most of the time there are few good investments<br />
that combine sufficient business quality with a large margin of safety in the form of a<br />
large gap between price and intrinsic value. That doesn’t mean that great investors are<br />
spending all of their time relaxing on the beach – to the contrary, they are typically<br />
avariciously reading and studying business and industries, preparing for the moment<br />
when securities of companies they understand well can be purchased at attractive<br />
prices. It does mean that they make investments infrequently, and that most of the time<br />
when they look at a potential opportunity they end up passing. Those who are unable to<br />
maintain this state of low activity frequently end up making questionable investments to<br />
satisfy their desire to do something, and more often than not it is their brokers who are<br />
the biggest beneficiaries of their elevated activity levels.<br />
<br />
3. Accumulation of mental models. Understanding different disciplines helps great<br />
investors look at questions of business analysis in new ways. While studying economics<br />
and industry-specific information can certainly help, the best investors also use insights<br />
from other fields to reach better decisions.<br />
<br />
4. Focus on process over outcome. Benjamin Graham wrote: “In the short-term the market<br />
is a voting machine, but in the long-term it is a weighing machine.” What he meant was<br />
that in the short-term security prices fluctuate purely based on the opinions of market<br />
participants, and can deviate widely from the underlying business values. In the longterm,<br />
it is the company’s assets and cash flows that determine its value and exert a<br />
force of gravity upon the price of its securities. With security prices available on a minute-<br />
by-minute basis, the run-of-the-mill investors focus on analyzing randomness – allowing<br />
themselves to become happy or sad over short-term price fluctuations that are<br />
disconnected from whether they were fundamentally right in their investment analysis.<br />
The best investors work hard to not be affected by the short-term price fluctuations, and<br />
instead focus on both improving their process and consistently executing it. Over the<br />
long-term their performance is a result of the quality of their process and of the<br />
consistency with which they execute it.<br />
<br />
5. Minimizing behavioral biases. Behavioral biases are pervasive and nearly impossible to<br />
eliminate, but the best investors work hard to be consciously aware of them and to take<br />
specific steps to mitigate them. As I wrote in Behavioral Defense in Decision Making,<br />
there are a number of steps one can take to stay as unbiased as possible. One of my<br />
favorites is to consciously seek out the strongest possible opposite point of view that<br />
contradicts my thesis. If done well, this can lessen the impact of many biases, such as<br />
anchoring, over-confidence and base-rate neglect.<br />
<br />
I frequently get asked by prospective investors about what my ‘edge’ is as an investor.<br />
Sometimes I think the answer that they are looking for is some proprietary model, some<br />
black-box that spits out superior answers that nobody possesses, or an ability to know what<br />
the future holds based on some deeply proprietary network of sources. The real answer is<br />
less exciting, but nonetheless quite effective. It is the combination of the traits and<br />
behaviors that I described above. I would add a sixth one to the list – staying humble while<br />
maintaining your confidence. History is littered with many seemingly great investors who fell<br />
apart and produced disappointing results for their clients just as they had accumulated the<br />
greatest amount of assets after a good run of performance. Perhaps some of them were<br />
never as great as they seemed, but in other cases I can’t help but think that it was a<br />
combination of hubris and complacency that led them astray.<br />
<br />
The best investors stay humble – always thirsting to learn and improve as well as accepting<br />
that they are fallible and can make mistakes. This helps them to be on guard against the<br />
traps of complacency and overconfidence. Some view this posture as inconsistent with<br />
confidence in one’s abilities – after all, this is an industry where some think that the best<br />
investors are supposed to be on CNBC or on the cover of some financial magazine telling the<br />
world how great they are, which seems incompatible with a humble, introspective approach.<br />
Believe me, the people I admire most as investors have rejected this false dichotomy, and<br />
are able to balance humility with confidence and competence in a way that allows them to<br />
continue to improve for many years.<br />
<br />
<br />
About the Author<br />
Gary Mishuris, CFA is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Silver Ring Value<br />
Partners, an investment firm with a concentrated long-term intrinsic value strategy. Prior to<br />
founding the firm in 2016, Mr. Mishuris was a Managing Director at Manulife Asset<br />
Management since 2011, where he was the Lead Portfolio Manager of the US Focused<br />
Value strategy. From 2004 through 2010, Mr. Mishuris was a Vice President at Evergreen<br />
Investments (later part of Wells Capital Management) where he started as an Equity Analyst<br />
and assumed roles with increasing responsibilities, including serving as the co-PM of the<br />
Large Cap Value strategy between 2007 and 2010. He began his career in 2001 at Fidelity<br />
as an Equity Research Associate. Mr. Mishuris received a S.B. in Computer Science and a<br />
S.B. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).<br />
<br />
<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-39841676578180277162017-08-15T17:28:00.000-07:002017-08-15T17:28:45.287-07:00Portfolio Composition on 8-04-2017Here are the holdings in the Chump portfolio today:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ-G30-K4YRRVmi3kZahpozhuv0L7EnGwwpas8Th3F6o2a2RbXDr8ZFUoUe6_-K2Bb-dZJRDDTAe6SoFpWkjfE8WfUuJ9joyvW5vl7_G1T0pHefOburC94dZICKYX4_krfQAV66K46OyAs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-08-04+at+10.46.56+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="732" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ-G30-K4YRRVmi3kZahpozhuv0L7EnGwwpas8Th3F6o2a2RbXDr8ZFUoUe6_-K2Bb-dZJRDDTAe6SoFpWkjfE8WfUuJ9joyvW5vl7_G1T0pHefOburC94dZICKYX4_krfQAV66K46OyAs/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-08-04+at+10.46.56+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
38 stocks, and 3% cash. Total portfolio yield is around 3.3%.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-9507123259658458222017-07-18T11:29:00.001-07:002017-08-02T10:34:24.836-07:00Looking at Old Republic International (ORI)I recently screened the current world of Dividend Aristocrats of which there are 108. Companies that have continued to increase the dividend for 25 years or more. My screen was a simple PE vs. Normal PE screen. Here are the top results (via FASTGraphs):<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin7PnCckKkAgzMvaqMBP0_xvPO8gp3R1jokLkRRu5ZWuddAeN2jW7RUDVALflQ7IoKfM3OV7atu3OctO2KNBZltFY9rrRLOlOAravyDAjwCrBmis0YE1n3fUz2tMmqohMreOcAJoNJFX84/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-17+at+5.53.45+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="1600" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin7PnCckKkAgzMvaqMBP0_xvPO8gp3R1jokLkRRu5ZWuddAeN2jW7RUDVALflQ7IoKfM3OV7atu3OctO2KNBZltFY9rrRLOlOAravyDAjwCrBmis0YE1n3fUz2tMmqohMreOcAJoNJFX84/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-17+at+5.53.45+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
From the screen above, Old Republic International, ORI, caught my attention with the lowest blended PE on the list.<br />
<br />
ORI is a 94 year old insurance company based in Chicago, IL. They have been paying a dividend since 1942, and have been increasing the dividend for the past 35 years straight. <br />
<br />
I next took a look at ORI's 2016 CEO letter and 10K from the company website, and have attached the link below. For those considering an investment in the stock, these are worth reading in their entirety.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.oldrepublic.com/2016_ar_10k_proxy.pdf">http://www.oldrepublic.com/2016_ar_10k_proxy.pdf</a><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here are some of my takeaways from these materials:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>ORI historically provided insurance products for three main segments: General Insurance, Mortgage Insurance (MI), and Consumer Credit Insurance (CCI)</li>
<li>The financial crisis in 2008 hit the MI and CCI segments of ORI pretty hard, thus a big increase in claims for the years 2009-2011, which is reflected in their historical financials</li>
<li>Since that time, they've re-classified these segments as "run-off" businesses, which means they continue to operate, but will be phased out over time, and resources will be invested in growing the General Insurance and other new insurance segments</li>
<li>One area of new growth is title insurance, which has been growing rapidly</li>
<li>A second area of new growth is accident and life insurance, which is just getting started</li>
<li>The culture of the ORI seems very employee and shareholder friendly, and employees own 9% of the company via various compensation and retirement plans</li>
<li>The company prefers to grow organically, and is not pursuing questionable acquisitions</li>
<li>The company is managed very conservatively, and is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet to weather difficult times</li>
<li>ORI and the leadership team are committed to the dividend, but while its never been halted or cut, it has only been increasing by a penny a year since the financial crisis</li>
</ul>
<div>
Here is a summary of their focus segments going forward, and target % contribution to the business (from the 10K):</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCDIv9YS-vjDPIhk2U-5mgr0OVuvezJwwo7Yw2VXhDIzv7d_7r8UcRYg5v_1DQ0TfkBkTJNBkAMtdRceoWl0jnsFOHv0tDZp0x0q-b2XqMVweGGdrFju20tIjRWFRaKUJxzSmp7iJaw-Ox/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+11.22.22+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="221" data-original-width="721" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCDIv9YS-vjDPIhk2U-5mgr0OVuvezJwwo7Yw2VXhDIzv7d_7r8UcRYg5v_1DQ0TfkBkTJNBkAMtdRceoWl0jnsFOHv0tDZp0x0q-b2XqMVweGGdrFju20tIjRWFRaKUJxzSmp7iJaw-Ox/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+11.22.22+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
And from an update on their website dated June, 2017, here is a recent snapshot summary:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf16psoPqc_CkP6VtaeReJYGZf1gGCn-cK7Rhlf5vsfemQ_xdnVn7n6MC6prkJh3XGwC24QZlypFZs_ck0KgJXckZoHAcpciyDMJ9pWpJHPYTGwmPaIaLW_IBkMYODVjp0ilg-tiGAkzg_/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+1.12.26+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="962" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf16psoPqc_CkP6VtaeReJYGZf1gGCn-cK7Rhlf5vsfemQ_xdnVn7n6MC6prkJh3XGwC24QZlypFZs_ck0KgJXckZoHAcpciyDMJ9pWpJHPYTGwmPaIaLW_IBkMYODVjp0ilg-tiGAkzg_/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+1.12.26+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Based on the book value above, the Price/Book ratio for ORI is an attractive 1.11 (stock trading right around the $19.56 as I write this).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div>
A 20 year FASTGraph for ORI follows:</div>
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3A7xmNRRiw564IMicXR5TG0Ec11jjxOl4InruJzQSfWuB9vbze-Bf-eoqzpF1zoiDFXq9KymSRKtdAkfszSF2Y9nKvUNmAqpFNwLWnLncy9HBGsAMimhyb3fbEihckaSybtYu4yreNdQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+10.36.57+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="631" data-original-width="817" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3A7xmNRRiw564IMicXR5TG0Ec11jjxOl4InruJzQSfWuB9vbze-Bf-eoqzpF1zoiDFXq9KymSRKtdAkfszSF2Y9nKvUNmAqpFNwLWnLncy9HBGsAMimhyb3fbEihckaSybtYu4yreNdQ/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+10.36.57+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
From these data, I note the following:<br />
<ul>
<li>Operating results look good prior to, and a few years after the great recession</li>
<li>This firm was particularly hard hit by the financial crisis</li>
<li>Operating results seem to have stabilized since 2012</li>
<li>The stock is currently trading at a reasonable valuation</li>
<li>Market cap of $5B, good credit rating of BBB+, and a low level of debt at 24%</li>
<li>Dividend yield is excellent at 3.9%</li>
<li>And of course, this is a Dividend Aristocrat...they continued to pay and raise the dividend throughout the financial crisis and difficult times. 35 straight years with an annual increase</li>
</ul>
Here is a look at their dividend history the past 20 years:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczCaSIAtPqb8tExp1K21iTQGLxGDSVd0Hr-AbySGRHQ3QOyeIoqliJUFerxjkw_AmlM2SDHB-SWx_WOLDaih5IWULyPYDl06VZKXyzN_pEM7yRWM2If9D8Q_CHfKv85PkAyRLoJIWRKMD/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+10.43.45+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="807" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczCaSIAtPqb8tExp1K21iTQGLxGDSVd0Hr-AbySGRHQ3QOyeIoqliJUFerxjkw_AmlM2SDHB-SWx_WOLDaih5IWULyPYDl06VZKXyzN_pEM7yRWM2If9D8Q_CHfKv85PkAyRLoJIWRKMD/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+10.43.45+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Prior to the recession, they were maintaining a payout ratio of around 25%, and increasing dividends at a nice pace. During the recession, when earnings and cash flow suffered, they continued to pay and increasing dividend, only 1% increases, while the payout ratio ballooned to 182% in 2012. Since 2012, the business has stabilized, and the payout ratio is dropping. Perhaps a larger increase in the dividend will begin as the payout ratio reaches a more normal historical level?<br />
<br />
Here is a look at the forecasted growth and cash flow:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMjhNKhy8PHA_S6q-PiGVv-L7J-6Z9o05fD0qZkpvfNzfbVUMgeJIqtuWjgT9U6ju7uX_x0NorQT9QnMxdSTZrt-xp-A899BYhGw181DcX_czyrZSOXubEVaQhjgMuVhbiQ_PURMSbef17/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+11.03.20+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="629" data-original-width="817" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMjhNKhy8PHA_S6q-PiGVv-L7J-6Z9o05fD0qZkpvfNzfbVUMgeJIqtuWjgT9U6ju7uX_x0NorQT9QnMxdSTZrt-xp-A899BYhGw181DcX_czyrZSOXubEVaQhjgMuVhbiQ_PURMSbef17/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-18+at+11.03.20+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Growth projections merit a higher PE estimate or expansion to 15. At PE 15, the return on revenue, or ROR, is estimated to hit 18.5% annually by the end of 2018.<br />
<br />
Taking another look at the valuation today, with a six year history to reflect more recent operations and the market's valuation of the stock give this FASTGraph:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpHVsLHO5R1BtA5q5AOrfZMGyPAnWlLd_GX8Tube22iB1zUWSmZN6aw073xly2e6E1vfUxODzpwe-v2pBuF0Ge14LLHT46qpRn9fn_Q_RWV8SrDAFZvzXaltCMb9m0qFTuGCKjMYfgFx0V/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-08-02+at+9.58.55+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="673" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpHVsLHO5R1BtA5q5AOrfZMGyPAnWlLd_GX8Tube22iB1zUWSmZN6aw073xly2e6E1vfUxODzpwe-v2pBuF0Ge14LLHT46qpRn9fn_Q_RWV8SrDAFZvzXaltCMb9m0qFTuGCKjMYfgFx0V/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-08-02+at+9.58.55+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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</div>
<br />
Since 2012, the average PE of the stock as been around 14.7. Today's price provides a discount to fair value of roughly 10%, so I view this as a good time to initiate a position.<br />
<br />
Insiders are supporting the stock recently as well. Looking at insider transactions since the start of 2016 yields the following chart, showing some buys by both Directors and the CEO at prices between $16.50 - $19.56....<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdPI6qJn0Z-bSrNtKc1jGhxGPOfdBqWfACTgZDaeXtcL5VPQi8uzhotmYkLhyphenhyphenkY5agwmtwGVE5A_QtExVes03MCcRwoNstLi9l1JYy5D-GOhFzI0nvXgxG9JSBYW1FZ9Ns9wtXs1MuUJTk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-08-02+at+10.25.39+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="152" data-original-width="1061" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdPI6qJn0Z-bSrNtKc1jGhxGPOfdBqWfACTgZDaeXtcL5VPQi8uzhotmYkLhyphenhyphenkY5agwmtwGVE5A_QtExVes03MCcRwoNstLi9l1JYy5D-GOhFzI0nvXgxG9JSBYW1FZ9Ns9wtXs1MuUJTk/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-08-02+at+10.25.39+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Based on my analysis of this stock, and its current valuation, I initiated a position in the stock on July 18, at a price of $19.52.<br />
<br />
I'll finish with the outlook for ORI as stated in the recent CEO letter from March, 2017:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Old Republic’s Outlook is Very Positive </b></div>
<br />
"Assessing the current insurance scene and the competitive forces at work makes us very
comfortable with our state of affairs. We are not and have no aspiration to be among the biggest
in our industry. But we’re confident in our ability to compete toe-to-toe with those players. Our
current capitalization is more than enough to 1) provide a necessary financial cushion, and 2) add
capital to individual subsidiaries so they may take advantage of existing and new opportunities.<br />
<br />
As long-term observers and practitioners in insurance, we have a great appreciation for the merits
of purposeful rather than growth “because we can.” Acquisitions – many of which we’ve done
over the decades – can be a good way to add impetus, access new approaches to organic
growth, and fill product distribution channels gaps. But acquisitions can also bring problems and
cultural differences that may be so intractable as to distract management’s attention from a wellknown
and reliably performing enterprise. To us, the bottom line is that we see very little of worth
to acquire in today’s insurance landscape.<br />
<br />
The preferred sources of growth, however, will continue to come from our existing business. They
will spring from the relationships, intellectual capital, and independent mindset that our people
bring to the table. It will come from Old Republic’s good name, and its reputation for being a good
place to do business. We’re convinced that ideas will arise that will be a fit with our culture,
values, and dedication to doing things right for customers and shareholders alike. With all this, we
plan to support and enhance organic growth, and to sponsor highly focused, specialty
underwriting ventures (as we last did early in 2015).
Most of the operating challenges encountered during the Great Recession years and their
lingering aftermath are behind us.<br />
<br />
We’re optimistic that our Company is on track to see positive
performance which will benefit our customers and serious investors in our stock."<br />
<br />
Respectfully submitted on behalf of the Board of Directors,
Aldo C. Zucaro
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Chicago, Illinois
March 10, 2017Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-65267709077549075672017-07-11T17:15:00.001-07:002017-07-11T17:15:12.415-07:00Selling Coca-ColaI sold my full position in KO today, price was $44.42. I bought the stock back in 2011, have have a cumulative gain in the stock since then of around 28%, which trails the S&P 500 significantly over the same period. Here is a FastGraph for KO:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKlq9PyC3eOCHWmaxH3VcVM_8VXfiPxoN_Vc5Xz_6EhfOQRKVj3GBXCDJKQNprXWqUFx34hrPwN4tdBZp-sebLq39y6ecsrfizLEqR4LAlfaSVly9hUl3Bl4CR2flIu33nClxsw_M0-glz/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-07-11+at+5.09.40+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="629" data-original-width="813" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKlq9PyC3eOCHWmaxH3VcVM_8VXfiPxoN_Vc5Xz_6EhfOQRKVj3GBXCDJKQNprXWqUFx34hrPwN4tdBZp-sebLq39y6ecsrfizLEqR4LAlfaSVly9hUl3Bl4CR2flIu33nClxsw_M0-glz/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-07-11+at+5.09.40+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
What concerns me about KO is their shrinking top line. They've been losing sales for 5 consecutive years, and seem unable to turn it around. They've also had declining EPS since 2013, and they are borrowing money to buy back back shares. This is increasing their debt, and artificially inflating their EPS. Not a recipe for long term success.<br />
<br />
Further, from a big picture standpoint, I think increasingly, there is a war developing on sugar and sugary drinks, and at today's price, the stock is pretty significantly overvalued.<br />
<br />
So I'm selling. I'm banking the cash for now until a better opportunity arrives.....I may dump the money into a telecom or utility for the dividends while a wait.<br />
<br />
KO has been riding on its brand name for years.....too much risk for me.<br />
<br />
ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-4696455028721060492017-06-06T17:44:00.001-07:002017-06-06T17:44:23.099-07:00A Few Adds This Week PFE, SKT, KIM , SPGWhen a dip presents, I'm occasionally adding to positions in the portfolio, I don't always post on the blog. In the past several days I've been adding to the following stocks:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>PFE</li>
<li>SKT</li>
<li>KIM</li>
<li>SPG</li>
</ul>
<div>
I'm also eyeing two stocks to trim or sell... KO due to deteriorating fundamentals combined with overvaluation, and AAPL, just a trim, it's grown into an overly large single position at 4.9% of my IRA.... I'm currently paralyzed by indecision on both actions....</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Best, </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Chump</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-64075880394194769282017-06-06T17:38:00.000-07:002017-06-06T17:38:02.774-07:00Prager U...Simply the Best I absolutely love these short, compelling videos. I show them to my family and friends....<br />
<br />
Here is the link: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/PragerUniversity">https://www.youtube.com/user/PragerUniversity</a><br />
<br />
Regards,<br />
<br />
ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-22267822902738904542017-06-02T14:23:00.000-07:002017-06-02T14:23:38.515-07:00QVCA, An Interesting Analysis I Received YesterdayThoughtful analysis put together by a smart UCSD student....<br />
<br />
Here is the link: <br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/alqm8qw913qbqha/LibertyInteractive%5B1%5D.pdf?dl=0">https://www.dropbox.com/s/alqm8qw913qbqha/LibertyInteractive%5B1%5D.pdf?dl=0</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-82293378660300886812017-05-16T10:10:00.000-07:002017-05-21T11:54:17.785-07:00Taking a Look at Berkshire and BaupostThree of my favorite investors are Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet, and Seth Klarman. So I thought I would pull up their current investments and recent changes to their portfolio. It occurs to me that I should be checking what these legends are doing more frequently.<br />
<br />
Here is the latest from Bershshire Hathaway:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQkUREvxLRctbjSeG1aFlv0Zo5R9_4vbie0Zb_UR_AAP3fh3QO09LYgMsMSYe_EjUn6ze4yuusLrbpP8OqOs7yUnqZiClFiJqiDl4sAMYU31ggrIl1EM_etxH4i723j7Hxl7YDFqfCumE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-05-16+at+9.02.19+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQkUREvxLRctbjSeG1aFlv0Zo5R9_4vbie0Zb_UR_AAP3fh3QO09LYgMsMSYe_EjUn6ze4yuusLrbpP8OqOs7yUnqZiClFiJqiDl4sAMYU31ggrIl1EM_etxH4i723j7Hxl7YDFqfCumE/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-05-16+at+9.02.19+AM.png" width="516" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Stocks I have in common with Berkshire are:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul>
<li>WFC, AAPL, KO, PSX, GE, JNJ</li>
<li>I hold 4 of his top ten, and sold IBM at a high last year, which I bet Warren wishes he had done</li>
<li>I note they own three airlines, which surprises me a bit. Warren has been very negative on airlines throughout his career...."the quickest way to $1M in the stock market is to invest $2M into an airline stock...."</li>
<li>I own one airline, ALK, and have been quite happy with it's performance. </li>
<li>BH also owns 6 financial stocks, including Visa and Mastercard. Worth more analysis</li>
<li>There are a few on the list I'm not familiar with, I'll check them out soon.</li>
</ul>
Now for Baupost, taking the data from this SA article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4073081-tracking-seth-klarmans-baupost-group-holdings-q1-2017-update<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZiY31pa9wf72-5Ivm5PWFhxZJZXGZ1Z1gZ3palJ_9_-GKPZgHC8m2VTEvHWXSlPzA9n8Hik9Ke9hTmaYuOwpiKqJRzM6KlyoVsUW7j4F1N52j0zQiZiRE1XSxHodq8y5t1g7nlkbbyQ8H/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-05-16+at+10.05.29+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZiY31pa9wf72-5Ivm5PWFhxZJZXGZ1Z1gZ3palJ_9_-GKPZgHC8m2VTEvHWXSlPzA9n8Hik9Ke9hTmaYuOwpiKqJRzM6KlyoVsUW7j4F1N52j0zQiZiRE1XSxHodq8y5t1g7nlkbbyQ8H/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-05-16+at+10.05.29+AM.png" width="600" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
I own fewer of these names, and only QCOM in my Chump IRA. I own ABC, ESRX, and MCK in my taxable account, but these pay small or no dividend. Interestingly, I owned FOXA as well, but sold it recently after the loss of Roger Ailes and Bill O'Reilly. This list gives me plenty to evaluate.<br />
<br />
Best,<br />
<br />
ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-12106318815383651872017-05-12T13:01:00.001-07:002017-05-12T13:06:52.786-07:00Adding to KIM, and Starting a Position is SKTREITs continue to get hit today due to some bad news in the sector, and in retail. Some of the high quality REITs I already own are selling at a great discount, and Tanger Outlet REIT (SKT), is really at a great price. I'm adding to my existing position in KIM, and starting a position in SKT.<br />
<br />
Here is a FASTGraph for SKT:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW7OvuX1p3EHU-R46Wrkp3PEOm65968ekFUakWAO5-ofXT8q2st-ejDXObqy_cPwyF681uJxqD3OYQ3hdg4H9tfIbZqXhz7IwNN807lAkCbzLnHDXBGB-vZUVU3my0-oTXH-AmKw6lwwEB/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-05-12+at+12.58.37+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW7OvuX1p3EHU-R46Wrkp3PEOm65968ekFUakWAO5-ofXT8q2st-ejDXObqy_cPwyF681uJxqD3OYQ3hdg4H9tfIbZqXhz7IwNN807lAkCbzLnHDXBGB-vZUVU3my0-oTXH-AmKw6lwwEB/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-05-12+at+12.58.37+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Here are the reasons I like SKT:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Great price, undervalued</li>
<li>5% dividend yield</li>
<li>Steady, consistent growth in cash flow the past 20 years!</li>
<li>Excellent credit rating</li>
</ul>
<div>
I really like REIT investments for my IRA. The high dividends are not taxed, and I reinvest them directly. This creates a compounding machine for the portfolio. As a % of the overall portfolio, REITs now account for 17.2% of the portfolio. Here are my REIT holdings:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>O</li>
<li>OHI</li>
<li>STAG</li>
<li>DLR</li>
<li>KIM</li>
<li>SKT</li>
<li>SPG</li>
</ul>
<div>
I'm still looking to add at least one more REIT in the healthcare or storage spaces...I like PSA and HCA, but both are still above my buy point.......</div>
<br />
<br />
Best regards,</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Chump</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-73571203641780844452017-05-09T10:21:00.002-07:002017-05-09T10:21:45.806-07:00Adding DOC (Physicians Realty Trust), Selling Lexington (LXP)Here is an article on the REIT from Brad Thomas....<br />
<br />
<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4063591-physicians-realty-just-doctor-ordered">https://seekingalpha.com/article/4063591-physicians-realty-just-doctor-ordered</a><br />
<br />
I've wanted to increase my ownership of healthcare REITs, with OHI as my only holding here. I looked at Ventas (VTR) and HTA, both good candidates, but both a bit too pricey for me today. DOC is trading at a nice discount to fair value, so that is my pick. I bought a 1/2 position in the stock today at a price of $19.12 per share. The yield today is around 4.7%.<br />
<br />
Here is the FASTGraph for DOC:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbcLmboWMfzXMcls6Hc0pmmGsLJCzHrE0m6q0-wjqA9PiYnxyv2DUorAP9-0YctKCMG0RZbGPovazbl38IrT-OR8END3NLQHOPOMSewJaDe9mVxOlNKktTutfOv3w_MMmAA3gubccBhjA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-05-09+at+9.37.09+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbcLmboWMfzXMcls6Hc0pmmGsLJCzHrE0m6q0-wjqA9PiYnxyv2DUorAP9-0YctKCMG0RZbGPovazbl38IrT-OR8END3NLQHOPOMSewJaDe9mVxOlNKktTutfOv3w_MMmAA3gubccBhjA/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-05-09+at+9.37.09+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Regarding Lexington... they are having some issues financially, and while their long term prospects seem fine, I think it will be a year or two before the price really starts to appreciate. I've closed the position, and redeployed to DOC above.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Best regards,</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Chump</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-77796640842786073502017-05-08T12:46:00.000-07:002017-05-08T12:46:04.380-07:00Good Article from Brad Thomas on STAG<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4070428-bet-stag-feels-like-always-dreaming?v=1494269483&comments=show">https://seekingalpha.com/article/4070428-bet-stag-feels-like-always-dreaming?v=1494269483&comments=show</a><br />
<br />
Still a buy in his mind.<br />
<br />
Best,<br />
<br />
ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6147698924473097046.post-4059948294059336682017-05-04T11:16:00.000-07:002017-05-04T11:29:52.237-07:00Adding in the REIT space - More Realty Income (O), and Simon Property Group (SPG)REITs as a group are down today due some bad news for a triple net REIT that I don't own. But the entire sector is getting punished.<br />
<br />
My position in O is smallish, at 3/4 of normal. The reason for this is that I trimmed O back from an oversized position to this undersized position on 6/26/2016 at a price of $68 and some change. At the time, I was worried about the size of my O position, and the high valuation. Here is a chart showing O's price from that day to today:<br />
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Selling at $68 was a good move. Buying back in at $54.97 could be a good move, we'll see. But one thing is certain, buying back the 110 shares I sold at $68, for a new price of $54.97, has saved me over $1,430, less dividends. The buy back gets me back to a full position. If O drops further, I'll build it back to where it was, which was a 5/4 position...<br />
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I'm also adding SPG today, good stock, good price, good dividend.<br />
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Best,<br />
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ChumpUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0