Thursday, October 17, 2013

Adding to positions in IBM and VMI

IBM is off over 6%, and VMI is down again today.  I'm adding to both of these positions today.

**Update

I placed limit orders for both the stocks mentioned above after writing the headline this morning, and both were filled. I bought IBM at $174.40 and VMI at $132.30.  Both are below my initial position prices, and bring down my average cost.  I like IBM for the long run, and I like VMI for the short to intermediate term.  Both are trading at nice discounts to "fair value."  I'll add a couple of FAST Graphs tomorrow with today's closing prices. (FAST Graphs take a day to update prices)

I also trimmed my position on WAG today on strength.  I own WAG in both my IRA and my taxable account, and the position has grown significantly via price appreciation this year.  In the Chump IRA, it was approaching 4.8% of the portfolio, where the target average size of a full position is more appropriately 3.1%.  My sale takes the position from 4.8% down to 4.4%.

I also closed out an (by selling) a put contract on XOM.  I'll discuss this in more detail in my next post, it was a good learning experience.

That's all for now,

Chump




Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Question of the Day

The UN has published it's latest report on global warming, stating that the IPCC is now 95% sure that man is responsible for warming the planet, up from 90% in 2007, the last time they published their report.

So, from today's Wall Street Journal, I pose the question of the day:

"Between 1998 and 2012 the global economy more than doubled in size—to some $71 trillion in GDP from $30 trillion. That's the good news. Over the same period the world pumped more than 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That is supposedly the bad news. Yet global surface temperatures have remained essentially flat. That's the mystery: If emitting CO2 into the atmosphere causes global warming, why hasn't the globe been warming?"

The report offers no obvious explanations.  Here is a link to the article:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304713704579092883286839894.html?mod=hp_opinion

Stay warm,

Chump

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

The Secret to Raising Smart Kids

A parent from my 7th grade daughter's math club sent this around to the parents of club members. There is some great advice to parents in this paper.  The pdf link is here, and full text is copied below:

http://www.ccsf.edu/Campuses/Downtown/scientific_american.pdf

Title: The Secret to Raising Smart Kids.
Authors: Dweck, Carol S.
Source: Scientific American Mind; Dec2007/Jan2008, Vol. 18 Issue 6, p36-43, 8p

The Secret to Raising Smart Kids
Hint: Don't tell your kids that they are. More than three decades of research
shows that a focus on effort — not on intelligence or ability — is key to success in
school and in life

A brilliant student, Jonathan sailed through grade school. He completed his assignments
easily and routinely earned As. Jonathan puzzled over why some of his classmates
struggled, and his parents told him he had a special gift. In the seventh grade, however,
Jonathan suddenly lost interest in school, refusing to do homework or study for tests. As
a consequence, his grades plummeted. His parents tried to boost their son's confidence by
assuring him that he was very smart. But their attempts failed to motivate Jonathan (who
is a composite drawn from several children). Schoolwork, their son maintained, was
boring and pointless.

Our society worships talent, and many people assume that possessing superior
intelligence or ability — along with confidence in that ability — is a recipe for success.
In fact, however, more than 30 years of scientific investigation suggests that an
overemphasis on intellect or talent leaves people vulnerable to failure, fearful of
challenges and unwilling to remedy their shortcomings.

The result plays out in children like Jonathan, who coast through the early grades under
the dangerous notion that no-effort academic achievement defines them as smart or
gifted. Such children hold an implicit belief that intelligence is innate and fixed, making
striving to learn seem far less important than being (or looking) smart. This belief also
makes them see challenges, mistakes and even the need to exert effort as threats to their
ego rather than as opportunities to improve. And it causes them to lose confidence and
motivation when the work is no longer easy for them.

Praising children's innate abilities, as Jonathan's parents did, reinforces this mind-set,
which can also prevent young athletes or people in the workforce and even marriages
from living up to their potential. On the other hand, our studies show that teaching people
to have a "growth mind-set," which encourages a focus on effort rather than on
intelligence or talent, helps make them into high achievers in school and in life.

The Opportunity of Defeat

I first began to investigate the underpinnings of human motivation — and how people
persevere after setbacks — as a psychology graduate student at Yale University in the
1960s. Animal experiments by psychologists Martin Seligman, Steven Maier and Richard
Solomon of the University of Pennsylvania had shown that after repeated failures, most
animals conclude that a situation is hopeless and beyond their control. After such an
experience, the researchers found, an animal often remains passive even when it can
affect change — a state they called learned helplessness.

People can learn to be helpless, too, but not everyone reacts to setbacks this way. I
wondered:

Why do some students give up when they encounter difficulty, whereas others who are
no more skilled continue to strive and learn? One answer, I soon discovered, lay in
people's beliefs about why they had failed.

In particular, attributing poor performance to a lack of ability depresses motivation more
than does the belief that lack of effort is to blame. In 1972, when I taught a group of
elementary and middle school children who displayed helpless behavior in school that a
lack of effort (rather than lack of ability) led to their mistakes on math problems, the kids
learned to keep trying when the problems got tough. They also solved many of the
problems even in the face of difficulty. Another group of helpless children who were
simply rewarded for their success on easy problems did not improve their ability to solve
hard math problems. These experiments were an early indication that a focus on effort
can help resolve helplessness and engender success.

Subsequent studies revealed that the most persistent students do not ruminate about their
own failure much at all but instead think of mistakes as problems to be solved. At the
University of Illinois in the 1970s I, along with my then graduate student Carol Diener,
asked 60 fifth graders to think out loud while they solved very difficult patternrecognition problems. Some students reacted defensively to mistakes, denigrating their
skills with comments such as "I never did have a good rememory," and their problem solving strategies deteriorated.

Others, meanwhile, focused on fixing errors and honing their skills. One advised himself:
"I should slow down and try to figure this out." Two schoolchildren were particularly
inspiring. One, in the wake of difficulty, pulled up his chair, rubbed his hands together,
smacked his lips and said, "I love a challenge!" The other, also confronting the hard
problems, looked up at the experimenter and approvingly declared, "I was hoping this
would be informative!" Predictably, the students with this attitude outperformed their
cohorts in these studies.

Two Views of Intelligence

Several years later I developed a broader theory of what separates the two general classes
of learners — helpless versus mastery-oriented. I realized that these different types of
students not only explain their failures differently, but they also hold different "theories"
of intelligence. The helpless ones believe that intelligence is a fixed trait: you have only a
certain amount, and that's that. I call this a "fixed mind-set." Mistakes crack their self confidence because they attribute errors to a lack of ability, which they feel powerless to
change. They avoid challenges because challenges make mistakes more likely and
looking smart less so. Like Jonathan, such children shun effort in the belief that having to
work hard means they are dumb.

The mastery-oriented children, on the other hand, think intelligence is malleable and can
be developed through education and hard work. They want to learn above all else. After
all, if you believe that you can expand your intellectual skills, you want to do just that.
Because slipups stem from a lack of effort, not ability, they can be remedied by more
effort. Challenges are energizing rather than intimidating; they offer opportunities to
learn. Students with such a growth mind-set, we predicted, were destined for greater
academic success and were quite likely to outperform their counterparts.

We validated these expectations in a study published in early 2007. Psychologists Lisa
Blackwell of Columbia University and Kali H. Trzesniewski of Stanford University and I
monitored 373 students for two years during the transition to junior high school, when the
work gets more difficult and the grading more stringent, to determine how their mind-sets
might affect their math grades. At the beginning of seventh grade, we assessed the
students' mind-sets by asking them to agree or disagree with statements such as "Your
intelligence is something very basic about you that you can't really change." We then
assessed their beliefs about other aspects of learning and looked to see what happened to
their grades.

As we had predicted, the students with a growth mind-set felt that learning was a more
important goal in school than getting good grades. In addition, they held hard work in
high regard, believing that the more you labored at something, the better you would
become at it. They understood that even geniuses have to work hard for their great
accomplishments. Confronted by a setback such as a disappointing test grade, students
with a growth mind-set said they would study harder or try a different strategy for
mastering the material.

The students who held a fixed mind-set, however, were concerned about looking smart
with little regard for learning. They had negative views of effort, believing that having to
work hard at something was a sign of low ability. They thought that a person with talent
or intelligence did not need to work hard to do well. Attributing a bad grade to their own
lack of ability, those with a fixed mind-set said that they would study less in the future,
try never to take that subject again and consider cheating on future tests.

Such divergent outlooks had a dramatic impact on performance. At the start of junior
high, the math achievement test scores of the students with a growth mind-set were
comparable to those of students who displayed a fixed mind-set. But as the work became
more difficult, the students with a growth mind-set showed greater persistence. As a
result, their math grades overtook those of the other students by the end of the first
semester — and the gap between the two groups continued to widen during the two years
we followed them.  Along with Columbia psychologist Heidi Grant, I found a similar relation between mindset and achievement in a 2003 study of 128 Columbia freshman premed students who
were enrolled in a challenging general chemistry course. Although all the students cared
about grades, the ones who earned the best grades were those who placed a high premium
on learning rather than on showing that they were smart in chemistry. The focus on
learning strategies, effort and persistence paid off for these students.

Confronting Deficiencies

A belief in fixed intelligence also makes people less willing to admit to errors or to
confront and remedy their deficiencies in school, at work and in their social relationships.
In a study published in 1999 of 168 freshmen entering the University of Hong Kong,
where all instruction and coursework are in English, three Hong Kong colleagues and I
found that students with a growth mind-set who scored poorly on their English
proficiency exam were far more inclined to take a remedial English course than were
low-scoring students with a fixed mind-set. The students with a stagnant view of
intelligence were presumably unwilling to admit to their deficit and thus passed up the
opportunity to correct it.

A fixed mind-set can similarly hamper communication and progress in the workplace by
leading managers and employees to discourage or ignore constructive criticism and
advice. Research by psychologists Peter Heslin and Don VandeWalle of Southern
Methodist University and Gary Latham of the University of Toronto shows that managers
who have a fixed mind-set are less likely to seek or welcome feedback from their
employees than are managers with a growth mind-set. Presumably, managers with a
growth mind-set see themselves as works-in-progress and understand that they need
feedback to improve, whereas bosses with a fixed mind-set are more likely to see
criticism as reflecting their underlying level of competence. Assuming that other people
are not capable of changing either, executives with a fixed mind-set are also less likely to
mentor their underlings. But after Heslin, VandeWalle and Latham gave managers a
tutorial on the value and principles of the growth mind-set, supervisors became more
willing to coach their employees and gave more useful advice.

Mind-set can affect the quality and longevity of personal relationships as well, through
people's willingness — or unwillingness — to deal with difficulties. Those with a fixed
mind-set are less likely than those with a growth mind-set to broach problems in their
relationships and to try to solve them, according to a 2006 study I conducted with
psychologist Lara Kammrath of Wilfrid Laurier University in Ontario. After all, if you
think that human personality traits are more or less fixed, relationship repair seems
largely futile. Individuals who believe people can change and grow, however, are more
confident that confronting concerns in their relationships will lead to resolutions.

Proper Praise

How do we transmit a growth mind-set to our children? One way is by telling stories
about achievements that result from hard work. For instance, talking about math geniuses
who were more or less born that way puts students in a fixed mind-set, but descriptions of
great mathematicians who fell in love with math and developed amazing skills engenders
a growth mindset, our studies have shown. People also communicate mind-sets through
praise. Although many, if not most, parents believe that they should build up a child by
telling him or her how brilliant and talented he or she is, our research suggests that this is
misguided.

In studies involving several hundred fifth graders published in 1998, for example,
Columbia psychologist Claudia M. Mueller and I gave children questions from a
nonverbal IQ test. After the first 10 problems, on which most children did fairly well, we
praised them. We praised some of them for their intelligence: "Wow … that's a really
good score. You must be smart at this." We commended others for their effort: "Wow …
that's a really good score. You must have worked really hard."

We found that intelligence praise encouraged a fixed mind-set more often than did pats
on the back for effort. Those congratulated for their intelligence, for example, shied away
from a challenging assignment — they wanted an easy one instead — far more often than
the kids applauded for their effort. (Most of those lauded for their hard work wanted the
difficult problem set from which they would learn.) When we gave everyone hard
problems anyway, those praised for being smart became discouraged, doubting their
ability. And their scores, even on an easier problem set we gave them afterward, declined
as compared with their previous results on equivalent problems. In contrast, students
praised for their effort did not lose confidence when faced with the harder questions, and
their performance improved markedly on the easier problems that followed.

Making Up Your Mind-set

In addition to encouraging a growth mind-set through praise for effort, parents and
teachers can help children by providing explicit instruction regarding the mind as a
learning machine. Blackwell, Trzesniewski and I recently designed an eight-session
workshop for 91 students whose math grades were declining in their first year of junior
high. Forty-eight of the students received instruction in study skills only, whereas the
others attended a combination of study skills sessions and classes in which they learned
about the growth mind-set and how to apply it to schoolwork.

In the growth mind-set classes, students read and discussed an article entitled "You Can
Grow Your Brain." They were taught that the brain is like a muscle that gets stronger
with use and that learning prompts neurons in the brain to grow new connections. From
such instruction, many students began to see themselves as agents of their own brain
development. Students who had been disruptive or bored sat still and took note. One
particularly unruly boy looked up during the discussion and said, "You mean I don't have
to be dumb?"

As the semester progressed, the math grades of the kids who learned only study skills
continued to decline, whereas those of the students given the growth-mind-set training
stopped falling and began to bounce back to their former levels. Despite being unaware
that there were two types of instruction, teachers reported noticing significant
motivational changes in 27 percent of the children in the growth mind-set workshop as
compared with only 9 percent of students in the control group. One teacher wrote: "Your
workshop has already had an effect. L [our unruly male student), who never puts in any
extra effort and often doesn't turn in homework on time, actually stayed up late to finish
an assignment early so I could review it and give him a chance to revise it. He earned a
B+. (He had been getting Cs and lower.)"

Other researchers have replicated our results. Psychologists Catherine Good, then at
Columbia, and Joshua Aronson and Michael Inzlicht of New York University reported in
2003 that a growth mind-set workshop raised the math and English achievement test
scores of seventh graders. In a 2002 study Aronson, Good (then a graduate student at the
University of Texas at Austin) and their colleagues found that college students began to
enjoy their schoolwork more, value it more highly and get better grades as a result of
training that fostered a growth mind-set.

We have now encapsulated such instruction in an interactive computer program called
"Brainology," which should be more widely available by mid-2008. Its six modules teach
students about the brain — what it does and how to make it work better. In a virtual brain
lab, users can click on brain regions to determine their functions or on nerve endings to
see how connections form when people learn. Users can also advise virtual students with
problems as a way of practicing how to handle schoolwork difficulties; additionally,
users keep an online journal of their study practices.

New York City seventh graders who tested a pilot version of Brainology told us that the
program had changed their view of learning and how to promote it. One wrote: "My
favorite thing from Brainology is the neurons part where when u [sic] learn something
there are connections and they keep growing. I always picture them when I'm in school."
A teacher said of the students who used the program: "They offer to practice, study, take
notes, or pay attention to ensure that connections will be made."

Teaching children such information is not just a ploy to get them to study. People do
differ in intelligence, talent and ability. And yet research is converging on the conclusion
that great accomplishment, and even what we call genius, is typically the result of years
of passion and dedication and not something that flows naturally from a gift. Mozart,
Edison, Curie, Darwin and Cézanne were not simply born with talent; they cultivated it
through tremendous and sustained effort. Similarly, hard work and discipline contribute
much more to school achievement than IQ does.

Such lessons apply to almost every human endeavor. For instance, many young athletes
value talent more than hard work and have consequently become unteachable. Similarly,
many people accomplish little in their jobs without constant praise and encouragement to
maintain their motivation. If we foster a growth mind-set in our homes and schools,
however, we will give our children the tools to succeed in their pursuits and to become
responsible employees and citizens.

Side Box: A for Effort
According to a survey we conducted in the mid-1990s, 85 percent of parents believed that
praising children's ability or intelligence when they perform well is important for making
them feel smart. But our work shows that praising a child's intelligence makes a child
fragile and defensive. So, too, does generic praise that suggests a stable trait, such as
"You are a good artist." Praise is very valuable, however, if it is carefully worded. Praise
for the specific process a child used to accomplish something fosters motivation and
confidence by focusing children on the actions that lead to success. Such process praise
may involve commending effort, strategies, focus, persistence in the face of difficulty,
and willingness to take on challenges. Here are some examples:

•  You did a good job drawing. I like the detail you added to the people's faces.
•  You really studied for your social studies test. You read the material over several
    times, outlined it and tested yourself on it. It really worked!
•  I like the way you tried a lot of different strategies on that math problem until you
    finally got it.
•  That was a hard English assignment, but you stuck with it until you got it done.
   You stayed at your desk and kept your concentration. That's great!
•  I like that you took on that challenging project for your science class. It will take a
   lot of work — doing the research, designing the apparatus, making the parts and
   building it. You are going to learn a lot of great things.

Parents and teachers can also teach children to enjoy the process of learning by
expressing positive views of challenges, effort and mistakes. Here are examples of such
communications:

•  Boy, this is hard — this is fun.
•  Oh, sorry, that was too easy — no fun. Let's do something more challenging that
   you can learn from.
•  Let's all talk about what we struggled with today and learned from. I'll go first.
•  Mistakes are so interesting. Here's a wonderful mistake. Let's see what we can
   learn from it. — C.S.D.

FAST FACTS Growing Pains

1. Many people assume that superior intelligence or ability is a key to success. But
more than three decades of research shows that an overemphasis on intellect or
talent — and the implication that such traits are innate and fixed — leaves people
vulnerable to failure, fearful of challenges and unmotivated to learn.

2. Teaching people to have a "growth mind-set," which encourages a focus on effort
rather than on intelligence or talent, produces high achievers in school and in life.

3. Parents and teachers can engender a growth mind-set in children by praising them
for their effort or persistence (rather than for their intelligence), by telling success
stories that emphasize hard work and love of learning, and by teaching them about
the brain as a learning machine.


Adding Valmont Industries (VMI)

Started a 1/4 position in VMI today.


Overview of the company from Reuters:


From FASTGraphs:


Decent undervaluation, beaten up pretty well the last six days or so.   Pays a small dividend, but has been increasing it the dividend every year for 11 consecutive years.  Dividend growth rate for the past 14 years in 9.1%.  Looking at the past 5 years shows that today's price of $136 or less is a good entry point, with a margin of safety of approximately 17%.


While not that important, analysts are pretty bullish on the stock.  From Fidelity:


I filled a limit order today at $136.

That's all for now,

Chump

Monday, September 30, 2013

Common Sense in Education

A great article from the Wall Street Journal


Why Tough Teachers Get Good Results

    By 
  • JOANNE LIPMAN
I had a teacher once who called his students "idiots" when they screwed up. He was our orchestra conductor, a fierce Ukrainian immigrant named Jerry Kupchynsky, and when someone played out of tune, he would stop the entire group to yell, "Who eez deaf in first violins!?" He made us rehearse until our fingers almost bled. He corrected our wayward hands and arms by poking at us with a pencil.
Today, he'd be fired. But when he died a few years ago, he was celebrated: Forty years' worth of former students and colleagues flew back to my New Jersey hometown from every corner of the country, old instruments in tow, to play a concert in his memory. I was among them, toting my long-neglected viola. When the curtain rose on our concert that day, we had formed a symphony orchestra the size of the New York Philharmonic.
[image]Kupchynsky Family
Mr. K began teaching at East Brunswick High School when it opened in 1958.
I was stunned by the outpouring for the gruff old teacher we knew as Mr. K. But I was equally struck by the success of his former students. Some were musicians, but most had distinguished themselves in other fields, like law, academia and medicine. Research tells us that there is a positive correlation between music education and academic achievement. But that alone didn't explain the belated surge of gratitude for a teacher who basically tortured us through adolescence.
We're in the midst of a national wave of self-recrimination over the U.S. education system. Every day there is hand-wringing over our students falling behind the rest of the world. Fifteen-year-olds in the U.S. trail students in 12 other nations in science and 17 in math, bested by their counterparts not just in Asia but in Finland, Estonia and the Netherlands, too. An entire industry of books and consultants has grown up that capitalizes on our collective fear that American education is inadequate and asks what American educators are doing wrong.
I would ask a different question. What did Mr. K do right? What can we learn from a teacher whose methods fly in the face of everything we think we know about education today, but who was undeniably effective?
[image]Luci Gutiérrez
As it turns out, quite a lot. Comparing Mr. K's methods with the latest findings in fields from music to math to medicine leads to a single, startling conclusion: It's time to revive old-fashioned education. Not just traditional but old-fashioned in the sense that so many of us knew as kids, with strict discipline and unyielding demands. Because here's the thing: It works.
Now I'm not calling for abuse; I'd be the first to complain if a teacher called my kids names. But the latest evidence backs up my modest proposal. Studies have now shown, among other things, the benefits of moderate childhood stress; how praise kills kids' self-esteem; and why grit is a better predictor of success than SAT scores.
All of which flies in the face of the kinder, gentler philosophy that has dominated American education over the past few decades. The conventional wisdom holds that teachers are supposed to tease knowledge out of students, rather than pound it into their heads. Projects and collaborative learning are applauded; traditional methods like lecturing and memorization—derided as "drill and kill"—are frowned upon, dismissed as a surefire way to suck young minds dry of creativity and motivation.
But the conventional wisdom is wrong. And the following eight principles—a manifesto if you will, a battle cry inspired by my old teacher and buttressed by new research—explain why.
1. A little pain is good for you.
Psychologist K. Anders Ericsson gained fame for his research showing that true expertise requires about 10,000 hours of practice, a notion popularized by Malcolm Gladwell in his book "Outliers." But an often-overlooked finding from the same study is equally important: True expertise requires teachers who give "constructive, even painful, feedback," as Dr. Ericsson put it in a 2007 Harvard Business Review article. He assessed research on top performers in fields ranging from violin performance to surgery to computer programming to chess. And he found that all of them "deliberately picked unsentimental coaches who would challenge them and drive them to higher levels of performance."
[image]Arthur Montzka
Mr. Kupchynsky helps his daughter with her bow stroke in 1966.
2. Drill, baby, drill.
Rote learning, long discredited, is now recognized as one reason that children whose families come from India (where memorization is still prized) are creaming their peers in the National Spelling Bee Championship. This cultural difference also helps to explain why students in China (and Chinese families in the U.S.) are better at math. Meanwhile, American students struggle with complex math problems because, as research makes abundantly clear, they lack fluency in basic addition and subtraction—and few of them were made to memorize their times tables.
William Klemm of Texas A&M University argues that the U.S. needs to reverse the bias against memorization. Even the U.S. Department of Education raised alarm bells, chastising American schools in a 2008 report that bemoaned the lack of math fluency (a notion it mentioned no fewer than 17 times). It concluded that schools need to embrace the dreaded "drill and practice."
3. Failure is an option.
Kids who understand that failure is a necessary aspect of learning actually perform better. In a 2012 study, 111 French sixth-graders were given anagram problems that were too difficult for them to solve. One group was then told that failure and trying again are part of the learning process. On subsequent tests, those children consistently outperformed their peers.
The fear, of course is that failure will traumatize our kids, sapping them of self-esteem. Wrong again. In a 2006 study, a Bowling Green State University graduate student followed 31 Ohio band students who were required to audition for placement and found that even students who placed lowest "did not decrease in their motivation and self-esteem in the long term." The study concluded that educators need "not be as concerned about the negative effects" of picking winners and losers.
4. Strict is better than nice.
What makes a teacher successful? To find out, starting in 2005 a team of researchers led by Claremont Graduate University education professor Mary Poplin spent five years observing 31 of the most highly effective teachers (measured by student test scores) in the worst schools of Los Angeles, in neighborhoods like South Central and Watts. Their No. 1 finding: "They were strict," she says. "None of us expected that."
The researchers had assumed that the most effective teachers would lead students to knowledge through collaborative learning and discussion. Instead, they found disciplinarians who relied on traditional methods of explicit instruction, like lectures. "The core belief of these teachers was, 'Every student in my room is underperforming based on their potential, and it's my job to do something about it—and I can do something about it,'" says Prof. Poplin.
She reported her findings in a lengthy academic paper. But she says that a fourth-grader summarized her conclusions much more succinctly this way: "When I was in first grade and second grade and third grade, when I cried my teachers coddled me. When I got to Mrs. T's room, she told me to suck it up and get to work. I think she's right. I need to work harder."
5. Creativity can be learned.
The rap on traditional education is that it kills children's' creativity. But Temple University psychology professor Robert W. Weisberg's research suggests just the opposite. Prof. Weisberg has studied creative geniuses including Thomas Edison, Frank Lloyd Wright and Picasso—and has concluded that there is no such thing as a born genius. Most creative giants work ferociously hard and, through a series of incremental steps, achieve things that appear (to the outside world) like epiphanies and breakthroughs.
Prof. Weisberg analyzed Picasso's 1937 masterpiece Guernica, for instance, which was painted after the Spanish city was bombed by the Germans. The painting is considered a fresh and original concept, but Prof. Weisberg found instead that it was closely related to several of Picasso's earlier works and drew upon his study of paintings by Goya and then-prevalent Communist Party imagery. The bottom line, Prof. Weisberg told me, is that creativity goes back in many ways to the basics. "You have to immerse yourself in a discipline before you create in that discipline. It is built on a foundation of learning the discipline, which is what your music teacher was requiring of you."
6. Grit trumps talent.
In recent years, University of Pennsylvania psychology professor Angela Duckworth has studied spelling bee champs, Ivy League undergrads and cadets at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, N.Y.—all together, over 2,800 subjects. In all of them, she found that grit—defined as passion and perseverance for long-term goals—is the best predictor of success. In fact, grit is usually unrelated or even negatively correlated with talent.
Arthur Montzka
Tough on the podium, Mr. K was always appreciative when he sat in the audience. Above, applauding his students in the mid-1970s.
Prof. Duckworth, who started her career as a public school math teacher and just won a 2013 MacArthur "genius grant," developed a "Grit Scale" that asks people to rate themselves on a dozen statements, like "I finish whatever I begin" and "I become interested in new pursuits every few months." When she applied the scale to incoming West Point cadets, she found that those who scored higher were less likely to drop out of the school's notoriously brutal summer boot camp known as "Beast Barracks." West Point's own measure—an index that includes SAT scores, class rank, leadership and physical aptitude—wasn't able to predict retention.
Prof. Duckworth believes that grit can be taught. One surprisingly simple factor, she says, is optimism—the belief among both teachers and students that they have the ability to change and thus to improve. In a 2009 study of newly minted teachers, she rated each for optimism (as measured by a questionnaire) before the school year began. At the end of the year, the students whose teachers were optimists had made greater academic gains.
7. Praise makes you weak…
My old teacher Mr. K seldom praised us. His highest compliment was "not bad." It turns out he was onto something. Stanford psychology professor Carol Dweck has found that 10-year-olds praised for being "smart" became less confident. But kids told that they were "hard workers" became more confident and better performers.
"The whole point of intelligence praise is to boost confidence and motivation, but both were gone in a flash," wrote Prof. Dweck in a 2007 article in the journal Educational Leadership. "If success meant they were smart, then struggling meant they were not."
8.…while stress makes you strong.
A 2011 University at Buffalo study found that a moderate amount of stress in childhood promotes resilience. Psychology professor Mark D. Seery gave healthy undergraduates a stress assessment based on their exposure to 37 different kinds of significant negative events, such as death or illness of a family member. Then he plunged their hands into ice water. The students who had experienced a moderate number of stressful events actually felt less pain than those who had experienced no stress at all.
"Having this history of dealing with these negative things leads people to be more likely to have a propensity for general resilience," Prof. Seery told me. "They are better equipped to deal with even mundane, everyday stressors."
Prof. Seery's findings build on research by University of Nebraska psychologist Richard Dienstbier, who pioneered the concept of "toughness"—the idea that dealing with even routine stresses makes you stronger. How would you define routine stresses? "Mundane things, like having a hardass kind of teacher," Prof. Seery says.
My tough old teacher Mr. K could have written the book on any one of these principles. Admittedly, individually, these are forbidding precepts: cold, unyielding, and kind of scary.
But collectively, they convey something very different: confidence. At their core is the belief, the faith really, in students' ability to do better. There is something to be said about a teacher who is demanding and tough not because he thinks students will never learn but because he is so absolutely certain that they will.
Decades later, Mr. K's former students finally figured it out, too. "He taught us discipline," explained a violinist who went on to become an Ivy League-trained doctor. "Self-motivation," added a tech executive who once played the cello. "Resilience," said a professional cellist. "He taught us how to fail—and how to pick ourselves up again."
Clearly, Mr. K's methods aren't for everyone. But you can't argue with his results. And that's a lesson we can all learn from.
Ms. Lipman is co-author, with Melanie Kupchynsky, of "Strings Attached: One Tough Teacher and the Gift of Great Expectations," to be published by Hyperion on Oct. 1. She is a former deputy managing editor of The Wall Street Journal and former editor-in-chief of Condé Nast Portfolio.
A version of this article appeared September 28, 2013, on page C1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Tough Teachers Get Results.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Selling FDO

FDO is up today, and I've decided to sell my entire position.  I executed a limit order today for $74.15, booking a gain of 32% since I purchased it in January and February of this year.  My average cost was $56.15.

I've grown increasingly uncomfortable with the valuation of late; the current yield is only 1.4%, so it was time to book profits, and look for a better investment.




At today's PE of 19.5, the stock is trading an historical premium to it's earnings justified valuation. 

Looking at price to book value ratio, shows a similarly lofty valuation:


Thus, I'll take the gain and move on.

That's all for now, 

Chump









Friday, September 6, 2013

Chump IRA Update - September 6, 2013

Here is a snapshot of the holdings in the portfolio:


I've circled the stocks that I'm keeping a closer eye on due to valuation.  I'm certainly not adding to any of these at present, and am considering reducing or selling my positions in EMR, DOV, and FDO.  As posted previously, hoping for an FDO acquisition offer, but I won't wait much longer.  And while MCD and KO are overpriced a bit, they tend always to be overpriced, and I have less than full positions in both, hoping for a big pullback to add.  I'd like to keep these blue chippers in the portfolio long term.  We'll see, but I may try selling some covered calls on DOV and EMR next week.

This week I added a bit to SO, PM, and O.  The high yield stocks have been getting hit as interest rates rise.  This presents a nice buying opportunity.

Performance Summary:

I started the portfolio in August, 2012, or more accurately, nearly finished and started measuring results vs. the S&P 500.

Here is where I stand today:

S&P 500 = 19.90%
Chump = 20.46%

Cool heh?  September makes me nervous, the market always seems to correct, so I'll look seriously to raise some cash by selling or trimming next week, likely FDO.  And just for fun, I bought two March 22 puts on Tesla Motors (TSLA).  Ostensibly as a hedge, but as a value investor, I just have to laugh at their stock price and market cap.  The puts cost me $2200, and I'm down around $400 on the "investment," but I enjoy having a short position in this company!

That's all for now,

Chump