Thursday, December 17, 2015

McDonalds vs. Stag Industrial

MCD has been on a nice run the past several months, its time to sell the entire position.  I bought MCD a couple of years back, and while the dividend is still decent, the price is severely overvalued for their earnings and projections.  Here is a FastGraph for MCD:

Today's price of around $117 and a PE of 24.1 are just too high.  Based on company forecasts for next year, and analyst projections beyond that, you can estimate the annual return of the stock for next few it is graphically, and it sucks:

If they hit their growth projections, fair value for the stock is lower than today, returning -2.19% annually.  Forget it.

I'm booking a 45% gain in the stock since my purchase, and redeploying the $15k or so elsewhere. It's only $15k because I trimmed MCD several months ago....

I've decided to start a position with 1/2 the proceeds in STAG Industrial, an industrial REIT.  STAG is undervalued today, and it's yielding 7.4%!

Here is a graph for STAG:

STAG will be my 4th REIT holding in the portfolio joining O, OHI, and DLR.  I consider this a good swap for MCD, better valuation and better yield.  Here is the projected returns for STAG:

Fair value estimates give an annual return of 22.76% to the end of 2017, and an aggregate return of 52%.  And due to the undervaluation today, this investment gives a reasonable margin of safety.