Sunday, February 11, 2018

What Looks Attractive after the Recent 8% Drop in the S&P? Added VTR, IRM

Keeping a watch list is really important to move quickly into great stocks when the market corrects.  I keep a list for the Chump IRA, mostly names with yields north of 3%, and a list for my taxable brokerage account with yields below 3%.  Here are some of the most attractive stocks from those lists as of Friday.

First, here are stocks I already own in the Chump IRA, and are now 4* rated by Morningstar (undervalued).  If I own a less than full position in any of these, I'm likely to add this week:




The list contains REITs, Utilities, and few others.  Next, is my watch list, which contains stocks I've read about, and done a little research on.  As they get close to my buy target prices, I do additional research, and if positive, I then add.  This can happen in an hour or two, so consider this list partially screened.  Also, I have to be careful not to get too overweight in a particular market sector.  The sectors tend to get undervalued as a group, so I try to only add a few from a specific sector like health care REIT for example, or REITs in general.


Recent adds to the Chump portfolio include Ventas (VTR), and Iron Mountain (IRM).

For my taxable account, I'm watching the following:


From this list AGN (Allergan) looks pretty compelling at recent prices, so I've started a position...

That's all for now,

Chump

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Chump IRA Holdings for January, 2018

I've been a bit lazy the past few months, and haven't been too good about updates.  I'll catch up in the coming week or two.  In the mean time, I thought it was important that I document my current holdings.  Here they are below, sorted by % size in the portfolio....




The portfolio contains 39 stocks, and around 4% cash.  REITs were off last year a bit, and this was reflected in my overall performance for the year, and current red seen in the % gain since purchase column.  In general, the higher yielding stocks have suffered a bit in the current rising interest rate environment, coupled with the ongoing threat of Amazon to the retail REIT sector.

Some recent adds to the portfolio include:

  • Ventas (VTR) - an attractively priced healthcare REIT
  • PPL Corp (PPL) - an attractively priced electric utility
  • Signet Jewelers (SIG) - a very attractively priced retail store
The rest of the holdings have been discussed previously.

Chump


Monday, November 6, 2017

Selling QCOM on the News

Shares of Qualcomm, QCOM jumped around 15% late last week on news that Broadcom will try to buy them.  I've been holding QCOM for a couple of years, enjoying the dividends, but not much price appreciation in the stock.  A few months ago, QCOM announced they would acquire NXPI for tens of billions of dollars.....

Now, with the stock up 21% from last week lows, I'm selling all my shares.  The way I see this playing out is either:

A)  Qualcomm moves to block the sale to Broadcom by over paying for NXPI, which would effectively act like a poison pill, and add a huge debt load to the company -or-

B)  Broadcom pulls off the deal, in which case the recent run up in the stock price is near it's peak....

I'm not seeing a lot of upside to holding QCOM...time to redeploy elsewhere.

Best,

Chump

Friday, October 27, 2017

Adding to Simon Property Group (SPG)

Adding to my SPG position today at around $157/share.  I started my position in SPG last year at $166, and have added chunks at lower prices, the lowest was $152.  The stock has been rising slowly since then, and they just reported an excellent quarter yesterday.  Today, retail is getting hit hard because JC Penney is reporting abysmal numbers, and SPG is down around 3.5% as a I write this....

Here is yesterday's SPG report summary:


This purchase takes me to a very full position in the stock, with a current dividend yield of 4.56%.  Love it.

Chump

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

S&P 500 Put, Stop Loss Triggers, Recent Adds (SJM)

So, how to hedge a big IRA portfolio?  Or should you bother if you are still 7 years away from your retirement age goal?  This has been on my mind lately.


  • The S&P500 PE is up over 25 lately, at historically high levels.  We haven't had a correction of 3% or more in nearly a year (11.5 months), and a 5% correction since well before that (18 months)
  • I don't own the S&P500 ETF in my IRA, so that's good.
  • I tend to buy undervalued stocks, and sell overvalued stocks, so that's good.
  • I do own a handful of names that are pretty overvalued, but continue to climb, so I hesitate to sell these, and they've grown large in the portfolio  (GD, JNJ, MO, PM, JPM, PSX, ABBV, CVX), which is bad if a correction comes soon...
Here are the measures I've taken to be a bit more prudent in the short run:
  • I bought an S&P put slightly out of the money at 2540, with an expiration of December 29, 2017.
    • This is liking having a short position for $250,000 worth of S&P "stock."  If the market drops 10%, this put would gain around $25,000 in value.
    • The cost for this put was around $4200
    • If the market remains positive, the put will expire worthless, and I'll have flushed $4200
    • As I write this, the market is down around 0.75% today, the put is up 40% today, slightly above the price where I purchased it....
  • For the stocks mentioned above that are overvalued, I put in stop loss orders for several (JNJ, GD, CVX so far)
    • I placed limit orders for a 3% trailing stop loss vs. last price.
    • If any of these drops 3%, the order becomes a limit at the price that's 3% below last closing price.  
    • The orders are only to trim down to a "full" position in the portfolio
    • As of this blog post, GD has triggered (did so on 10-19-17) at a price of $207.75, which is above today's price, so that was good.
Shifting gears, I like SJM again today, and have added another chunk.  FASTGraph below:


Regards,

Chump

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Updating My Investing Rules.....

I've been thinking about the rules I wrote when I started this Dividend Growth IRA.  I went back and looked at the rules I wrote in 2012, and here they are:











After 5 years of running this portfolio, its time I reviewed and updated these rules a bit.

1.  I've eliminated the "core" and "non-core" designations.  This is tough to track and doesn't make a ton of sense anymore.  I have a taxable account where I invest in lower yielding stocks, and that serves as the non-core.  Today, I only invest in 2.5% yield or higher stocks for this account (usually)

2.  The 10% cash goal is still valid, and I'm a little light today.  I need to trim some of my larger/overpriced names.

3.  I still only add stocks at nice undervaluation, so that's been good.  I'm a bit slow to sell stocks if they are 15% overvalued.  I'll need to change that to higher overvaluation number, perhaps 30% or so.  I also rarely use stop losses.  I find they don't work too well, and usually get triggered, then the stock recovers quickly.

4.  There are other factors I like to look at these days, among them are:
  • Debt level (50% or less preferred)
  • Credit rating (at least BBB+)
  • Morningstar rating (4* or better is what I usually require)
  • ROIC, lately looking for higher than 10% here...though a soft target
  • Revenue.  In addition to eps growth, I also like to see a growing revenue line
  • Insider action (I like to see insiders buying the shares, and especially hate to see them selling)
  • I also read the 10Q for the latest 2 quarters carefully, this is usually instructive, and gives me a feel for the CEO and whether or not she is a "bullshitter"






Friday, September 8, 2017

Selling AFL, Buying SJM

Put orders in today to sell my position in AFL, and start a position in SJM

AFL has been a decent performer, and is a modestly overvalued today.  The dividend is down to 2.14%, and also hold a larger position in my taxable account.  As a result, I'm closing the AFL position in favor or something more undervalued with a better yield.

Enter Smucker (SJM).  JM Smucker came to attention today via Chuck Carnivale, article here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4105099-choosy-investors-choose-j-m-smucker-dividend-adds-value

Thoughts on the matter:

  • AFL is a big position in two accounts.  Closing out one makes sense, and reduces risk
  • Growth prospects are better for SJM
  • Yield higher for SJM
  • AFL is a bit overvalued today, has a low yield, and is very stingy with dividend increases
  • I recently opened a position in ORI, another insurance name, so I feel fine closing AFL in the Chump account
  • SJM is a more defensive stock, and should fair well if the market tanks, or the economy slows

In short, this is an upgrade from my AFL holding here, a more defensive stock, and a better fit for my retirement portfolio given the higher yield, around 2.95% today....  Added the stock at $107, 1/2 position.

Best,

Chump