Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Stock Swap Today, Selling ALK, Buying AMAT

I'm selling Alaska Air in total.  I bought ALK back in 2013 at a price of $42.30 per share.  I'm selling the position today for around $67 and change.  Here are the approximate stats for the sale:



Around 11% annual return on the investment.  In addition, I sold a chunk in 2016 at $88/share, so the return is actual greater than shown.

My rationale for selling is twofold.  One, I'm not thrilled with the forecasted EPS shrinkage at ALK.  Their recent purchase of Virgin is questionable for me, and I think I can find a better value investment elsewhere,  which should give me a better return on my investment capital.

That better investment for me today is AMAT.  Here is the FASTGraph for AMAT:


AMAT has a lower/better valuation, better growth prospects, a similar dividend yield, better credit rating, and superior return on invested capital.  In short, I'm trading up, and getting a good quality stock at a very attractive price.  Trade war rhetoric and tariffs are baked into today's price, so I see some real upside in the event that negotiations with China turn more positive.  If not, current forecast holds.

I placed limit orders today to sell my entire ALK position, and buy a 1/2 position in AMAT, to which I will add in the coming month or two.

Neither stock is really a perfect dividend growth stock, but I like to own a few low dividend yielders, in exchange for a bit more growth potential.  This is the role of this stock - more growth, less yield.

Best,

Chump