Saturday, September 22, 2012

Portfolio Update Through Friday 9-21-2012

Here is a summary of holdings through Friday, and performance metrics follow:

No new positions were added this week.  Shares were added to a few names on dips this week where valuations were attractive including WAG, DOV, TEVA, CSX, INTC and CSCO.  Cash is low, now only 3% of the portfolio, but TIPs are another 10.23%, which could be used for additional purchases.

COP is on my s**t list with projected growth of 0%, and a price at fair value.  If the price appreciates further this week, I'll likely put in a stop loss with the intent of selling the position for a stock with better growth potential.

Here are the stats for the portfolio:

Trailing the S&P YTD by 4.05%, however, this is not a good comparison.  I started building this portfolio in July and August, and really had it mostly built by mid-August.  Next week, I'll start tracking monthly performance vs. the S&P, and start the comparison from September 1, 2012.

From September 1 to today, the fund has returned 3.34%, but trails the S&P which is up 3.81%.  It will be interesting to see how the performance compares longer term.

Here is a snapshot of the portfolio screened through FAST Graphs, highlighting a few important metrics (Click to enlarge):


  1. i'm at about 10% cash now, with room to go up to 20-30% cash. seems like there could be some buying opportunities within the next month or two.

    1. Hey Kolpin: I need to increase my cash position some too. In my rules, I talk about 10% cash, which is probably prudent given that the S&P is hitting all time highs right now. In the event of a big correction, I won't have much cash available to buy good bargain stocks. I'm going to look hard this week at generating some additional cash through stops for at least a portion of my positions that are at or above fair value.


    2. Chumpmenudo, you could sell your COP and have your cash.

      Notice how Fastgraphs gives a 11,9% growth for the 5 year total return... that has to do on the basis of them putting fair value at p/e 15? But you have to ask yourself if that is a good assumption if COP only deserve a p/e of say 10! Same thing for CVX I think.

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    4. Grox:

      You are correct, the growth assumes a PE of 15, when their actual historical normal PE is around 9.0 for both the past six years, and the past 15 years. If you look at my holdings spreadsheet at the top of this blog, you'll see these more correct PE ratios for both CVX and COP, and that COP is right on fair value while CVX is slightly under. At least CVX is projecting 6.8% growth rate in earnings; COP is projected at 0% EPS growth, which I definately don't like. I've looked at some other financial sites, and do see COP forecasts of 6% growth, so it's difficult to really say. The price of oil and natural gas will determine whether or not these stocks grow earnings. I tend to believe both are headed higher vs. the U.S. dollar, so I hate to sell either of these to generate cash.