Friday, January 6, 2017

2016 Stats, New Rules, Selling IBM

I'm starting the review of my portfolio to position for 2017.  A few statistics:

  • the value of the Chump IRA is now slightly more than $700k (a double since I started tracking this closely in 2012)
  • there are 37 stocks in the portfolio, which I think is too many.  I'd like to be around 30, but will try and get down to 35 soon.
  • if I keep 10% cash, that's $70k, at present, I only have $43k cash or 6.2%
  • if I achieve the 10% cash goal, that leaves 630k to invest in 37 stocks, so the average full position should be around $17,000.
  • at 35 stocks, the average position is $18,000
  • at 30 stocks, the average position is $21,000
Actions
  • Establish definition of "Full" position as $18k, Morningstar 3* or better
  • Establish definition of "Full +" position as $22k, Morningstar 4* or better
  • Establish definition of  "Full -" position as $12k, Morningstar 2* or worse
  • Establish starting 1/2 position as $9k
Of course the Morningstar ranking are just guidelines, in some cases I may disagree a bit on the valuation or reason for owning the stock.

My first action today is to sell IBM.  I bought IBM a couple of years ago, held it through a multi-year swoon, watched it gain around 26% in 2016, and am now at a profit of a whopping 4.5% since my purchase.

Among my reasons for selling:
  • Questionable business model and future
  • 5 straight years of declining revenues
  • 5 straight years of rising long term debt (to pay the dividend)
  • Currently overvalued, 2* rating at Morningstar
I'm going to add $16.5K to my cash position with this sale, and have one fewer name in the portfolio, taking the total from 37 to 36 stocks.

Best,

Chump

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